Linn Group Morning Soybean Comment

CHICAGO - Jul 28/10 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

Soybeans closed slightly higher on Friday after a day with a tight trading
range.  The Nov contract settled at 981 ½ up 2 cents on the day.  The new
crop contract opened slightly higher and made the lows of the day around
9:45am.  Trade turned around after the low and climbed steadily until around
11:00am and put in the highs of the day.  Trade settled after this and
settled around the middle of the 11 cent range.  The August contract settled
at 1017 up 1 with the September contract settling at 991 up ½.  The back and
forth trade of the week left the Nov contract down 3 ½.  Volume for the day
was 82,453 for soybeans, 48,521 for soymeal, and 72,062 for soyoil.

Overnight trading closed down 7 cents.  The opening call is for the market
to open in line with the over night.  After a weekend of heavy rains and
heat across the Midwest, beans will be trading lower.  Beans still have
about a month of trade where weather can affect the crop before it is made.
There is a very difficult story developing in determining how much of the
crop is benefiting from rains and how much is being hurt. The summer rains
are always beneficial to more than that that gets damaged. But this is hard
to combat with so many reports of flooded out crops. Reports of nitrogen
leaching and potential loss of yields have been widespread and will grow
this week. Outside markets: USD$ -0.16, Dow futures -17, Gold -0.8, and
crude -0.27.  Outside markets didn’t seem to have much effect on trade last
week, but we’ll see if that trend continues this week.  The Commitment of
Traders report as of July 20th. shows Index Funds positions as: Corn Long
416,700 up 17,048, Soybeans Long 152,857 up 1,849, Wheat Long 196,271 off
430, Meal Long 8,400 up 498, Oil Long 98,207 off 339.

Globex Overnight

Contract           Last      Net Change      High       Low     Volume

ZSQ10             1010^0-7^0                 1015^4  1007^6  1044

ZSU10             984^4  -6^4                 990^4    981^2     474

ZSX10             974^2  -7^2                 981^6    972^0     5667

ZSF11             982^0  -7^6                 990^4    980^6     611

ZSH11             986^2  -6^6                 993^2    986^2     117

ZMQ10           296.9   -3.0                  299.6   295.7   989

ZMU10            287.6   -2.8                  290.2   286.6   510

ZMV10            280.0   -3.8                  283.5   280.0   212

ZLQ10             38.90   -0.17                39.19   38.81   5623

ZLU10             39.07   -0.07                39.28   39.01   4222

ZLV10             39.23   -0.11                39.44   39.18   1048

Early Opening Calls: off 5-7 cents

Top News

-- Many analysts expect Monday's USDA crop progress report to show little
change in Corn & Soybean conditions this week.  Last week Corn in the good
to excellent was 73%, while Soy in that category was 65% good to excellent

-- Malaysian palm oil exports during the July 1-25 period were 1.103 mln mt,
down 0.9% from the same number of days in the prior month, acc. to SGS data

-- Malaysian palm oil exports during the July 1-25 period were 1.074 mln mt,
down 4% from the same number of days in the prior month, acc. to Intertek
data

-- Indonesia lowered the base crude palm oil price to $725/mt and lowered
their export tax to 3% in August from 4.5%

-- Indonesia Palm Oil Assoc data suggest exports of crude palm oil during
June rose by 9% to 1.14 mln mt shipped abroad.

-- Pending Tender: Israeli group on Monday announced a tender for 14,000 mt
of US or Latam Soymeal, bid deadline is Wednesday, July 21st

-- Pending Tender: July 21 is bid deadline for India RBD palm olein tender,
they're seeking 8,500 mt for delivery in the Aug-Sep period

-- Dalian May soybean futures were 5 yuan better at 3,970 yuan/mt.

-- Dalian May soymeal futures were 11 yuan better at 2,919 yuan/mt; Jan
soyoil were 34 yuan better at 7,658 yuan/mt.

-- Dalian Jan palm oil futures were 40 yuan better at 6,666 yuan/mt.

-- Liffe Aug rapeseed futures were off -3.50 euro at 358.50 euros/mt.

-- Globex Soybean Vol.  71,751; Pit Vol. 8,398; Open Interest Change: -
5,698

-- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip.

-- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.74 at $78.24; Gold & Silver: +0.5 at
$1190.2 & +0.024 at $18.125; US $ -0.159 at $82.470

Cash Markets

-- CIF Soybeans steady.  July +80 to +90, FH Aug. +70 to +?? , Aug. +70 to
+85, Sept. +80 to +90, Oct. +72 to +76, Nov. +76 to +80, Dec. +72 to +75,
Jan. +73 to +75



To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly

Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/

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