CWB Boosts Pool Return Outlook

WINNIPEG - Jul 23/10 - SNS -- The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) boosted projected returns for both its 2009 and 2010 wheat marketing pools in its latest Pool Return Outlook (PRO).

New crop wheat values are up between $6 and $14 per metric ton (MT) from last month's PRO, depending on class, grade and protein level. Durum is up $13 to $14 MT and malting barley has increased by $10 to $11 MT. Feed barley values remain unchanged from June

Discussing the situation facing wheat markets, the CWB said, "Futures markets have increased substantially since the last PRO. Chicago futures led the way, with the December 2010 futures contract up $1 per bushel to more than $6 per bushel. Minneapolis and Kansas December 2010 futures have also increased to more than $6 per bushel.

"Weather-related problems in Russia, Kazakhstan and the EU-27 -- coupled with the existing problems in Canada -- have given the market grist to rally due to supply-related concerns," the board said.

"However, wheat fundamentals at the end of the 2009-10 marketing year remain bearish. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), ending stocks are estimated at more than 193 million MT, an increase of 28 million MT over the previous year. Total global production of 680 million MT is the second-largest on record, coming on the heels of a record 683 million MT in 2008-09.

"Stocks were widely distributed in 2009-10, making the global wheat situation decidedly a buyer's market. Total wheat supplies (production plus carry-in stocks) held by the eight significant export countries of Argentina, Australia, EU-27, U.S., Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine totalled 419 million MT."

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