PFGBEST Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 20/09 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from PFGBEST Research.

Ceteris Paribus

Ceteris paribus

Commitment of traders data released Friday November 13th showed an increase in

positions betting against the US Dollar last week. Significant changes include increases

in long positions in Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen and a decrease in net short positions

betting against the British Pound for the first time in the last 4 weeks.

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 42,044 39,028

Short 20,166 19,196

Net 21,878 19,832

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 67,904 64,023

Short 42,731 41,832

Net 25,173 22,191

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 28,677 25,102

Short 44,534 44,007

Net -15,857 -18,905

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 25,717 21,171

Short 2,419 2,506

Net 23,298 18,665

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 30,168 27,862

Short 8,184 4,493

Net 21,984 23,369

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week

Long 54,402 55,825

Short 6,968 5,442

Net 47,434 50,383

(Source Reuters)

Retail sales will be the first key report this week, set for release Monday at 730am Central

time. According to Bloomberg, Retail Sales likely rose by 0.9% in October after falling

by 1.5% in September, based on the median of 66 estimates in the survey. Retail sales is a

monthly measure of consumer spending and is an important component of GDP. Unless we

see a larger than expected increase in Monday's report, it is likely that we will see continued

weakness in the US dollar as it tests the key 7500 support level.

Ceteris paribus is Latin for "Other things unchanged". Until we see significant signs that the

US economy is showing significant jobs growth and sustained economic growth, ceteris paribus,

the secular bear market in the US dollar is likely to continue. Look for opportunities to get short

the US dollar in the week ahead.

Paul Kavanaugh

888.439.6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

PFGBEST Research Team

Phone: 800-361-6855 or 319-553-2181

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