Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Jun 24/09 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Obama bullish for oil! Oil gets an Obama bounce surging yesterday as  he faced tough questions in middle of the trading day press conference. Finally the press took off the gloves and asked  Obama some tough questions without worrying that somehow they might offend him. Now I don't know if it was the talk on Iran or his reaffirmation of the religion of green energy that drove oil, but at least for one shining moment yesterday afternoon oil bulls just loved  him.

Obama said his position on Iran has not changed and he said  the United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days in Iran.   He said that he strongly condemn these unjust actions and  he joins with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost. Still  Obama seemed to have a hard time trying to find the middle ground between freedom and tyranny with a weaker statement by saying, "The fact that they (Iran) are now in the midst of an extraordinary debate taking place in Iran, you know, may end up coloring how they respond to the international community as a whole. We are going to monitor and see how this plays itself out before we make any judgments about how we proceed."

Monitor and see how it plays out? Don't offend the offenders because they have the guns and it might mess up your plans to try to get friendly with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamadineajad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when they finish cracking heads killing their own people and restore tyrannical order.

But perhaps it was  Obama's pushing of his green energy plan that will tax the polluter (which means you and me) as a way of paving the way for our green energy future. The president said that, "This week, the House of Representatives is moving ahead on historic legislation that will transform the way we produce and use energy in America. It is legislation that will finally spark a clean energy transformation that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil and confront the carbon pollution that threatens our planet. These incentives will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy. And that will lead to the development of new technologies that lead to new industries that could create millions of new jobs in America ' jobs that cannot be shipped overseas." Profitable?! If you mean by making oil and natural gas and coal unaffordable and oil bulls rich then I might say that you are right.  

Perhaps it was the response to the tough questions on Iran that gave oil the boost or perhaps it was the president's cajoling of the house to pass his energy bill under the assertion that we could tax the polluters to pay for a new era of green jobs.  But despite  Obama's  best efforts to support the price of oil, worries about the demand side crept back in after a very weak API report.

The American Petroleum Institute seemed to suggest that gasoline demand and perhaps the economy is taking another dip to the downside. The API reported that US gasoline inventories rose by a whopping 3.69 million barrels and  showed that gasoline demand took a plunge sending inventories surging. The API also reported that distillates rose by 2.34 million barrels and crude inventories fell by 72000 barrels all very bearish. Overnight the weak report was weak enough to allow oil and products to ignore somewhat the dollar that is losing ground ahead of the Fed meeting.

Is oil and gas demand so bad that the price may ignore at least for awhile the larger outside macroeconomic forces that have driven the price of oil. Can it ignore the dollar? Can it ignore the Fed? Can it ignore the largest global economic stimulus the world has ever known?  Is oil going to disconnect from the dollar because it feels that the drug known as economic stimulus and quantitative reassigning is beginning to wear off?

The fed speak  will be important.  It is trying to lower the excitement and pour water on the flames of economic over optimism. Green shoot or overshoot. The fed wants you to know that at least right now there is no chance that they are raising rates this year. Yet will the market give them a choice. What the fed says will be key for oil.

See me on the floor  of the CME  today assessing market action before and after the announcement on the Fox Business Network! We still like oil long in the long term. Short term we will see choppy volatility as the market tries to top. Short term we are trading both ways. Position traders we are waiting for a big break to get long. If you want a entry point long or short call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com to open your account.

Buy  August  crude 6550 - stop 6260.

Buy August heating oil at 16500 - stop 16300.

Buy August RBOB at 17300 -  stop 16900.

We're long  August  natural gas from  apprx 4120 '  stop 392.

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

pflynn@alaron.com

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