Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 27/09 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

The DX opened higher at 85.46 as concerns that the 'swine flu' virus will pressure the global economic recovery efforts. Travel bans to the U.S. and Mexico hit the airline, energy  and travel industry, sending equity markets lower and the safe-haven of Treasuries and Dollar Index higher. Prices slid to a day-session Lo of 85.84, before climbing to a daily Hi of 86.075  as equities retraced and ended the session at 85.91, up 99 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will look to the foreign equity markets as a guide to trade the DX. Lower equity markets should increase risk-aversion and benefit Treasury markets and Dollar longs. A higher open should find Resistance at 86.37 and 86.83, while an open below 85.62 may find Support at 85.16 and 84.41.

The EC opened lower at 1.3119 and rose to a mid-day Hi of 1.3156, along with higher equity  prices. As the equity prices retraced through to the close, traders sold EC and bought DX,  sending the EC to a daily Lo of 1.2994, before bouncing to a close of 1.3018, down 225 tics. Weak optimisum following this weekends' G-7 conference  could not help the EC  against the stronger DX. Traders are looking for another rate-cut out of next weeeks ECB rate  meeting on  May 7th, which should weigh on prices. A lower open may find Support at 1.2928 and 1.2837, while an open above 1.3084 should find Resistance at 1.3175 and 1.3331.  

The CD opened lower at .8227 against the stronger DX and weaker commodity prices. A morning jump in oil prices sent the CD to a morning Hi of .8283, before trailing lower towards the close. A  late afternoon move in the  DX sent the CD to our initial Support level of .8186, before closing the session at .8201, down 81 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will look to the DX as a guide to prices. A lower open may find Support at .8164 and .8126, while an open above .8223 should find Resistance at .8261 and .8320.

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak.com

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