Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 14/09 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

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Monday's first report was our weekly export inspection report at 10:00a central time showing 3.14 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export down from 44.4 the week prior and four week average of 34 m.b.   We should expect a slight pull back after last week's four dollar plus prices and the USDA report leaving importers to take a step back.   It is a neutral demand indicator for the week.   I still look for a progressively steady improvement in demand as China and other Asian countries continue to be buyers and stores of corn.   After the close Monday, our first crop progress report of the year came out at 3:00p central time.   It showed 2% of our potential 84.9 million acres of corn is now planted.   This is equal to last year but under our five year average of 6% planted.   Key Midwest producers read like this:   Illinois 0% planted vs. 7% on the five year average.   Indiana 0 vs. 2.   Iowa 0 vs. 1 and Ohio at 0 vs. 1.   The biggest changes showed up in the southern Delta where planting is far behind the averages but only about 10% of our course grain is produced in the South.   There is at least a chance now to catch up to a year ago but probably continue behind the five year average as after today's rains across the grain belt move out its much warmer and drier through Saturday.   Then another Midwest rain Sunday and Monday then drier through to April 26^th.   It is almost a more normal pattern and should allow some field work and planting to pick up.   May continues to find strong resistance at the 4.03 to 4.06 area.   A close over 4.06 leaves 4.18 as next resistance.   3.82 is support but a close under sets up a test of 3.60.   Stay out of the short side of corn.   Continue to buy breaks only not rallies as the long term supply demand tables remain positive.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 20.4 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export vs. 21.1 the week prior and four week average of 21 m.b.   All three numbers are friendly demand indicators but not bullish as we would need 35 plus to be bullish.   The big picture remains a strong demand outlook as Asia's mandate for a more protein rich diet continues to keep world inventories and U.S. supplies declining.   After last Thursday's USDA Crop Report fund traders decided that bean stocks are too low and look to further decline leaving them under positioned.   They came in Monday with the intent to add to their longs even with the Dow down over 200 and crude down 3.00 they were aggressive bean buyers and again today Tuesday.   Remember- last April we rallied 2.50 on the month and this April came in almost 2.40 cheaper per bush than a year ago, while demand is stronger this year.   So no real surprise here on beans strength as traders are concerned lack of planted acres leave us one dry stretch this summer with ending stocks under 100 m.b.   The market trades fear before fact.   Near term the longs are getting fat with profits so there is room for some profit taking.   As I have said repeatedly, do not buy sharp rally only the breaks.   May has resistance at 10.50 If we fail to take it out we could pull back to 10.10 another buy point.   However, a close over 10.50 will trigger further fund buying and pushing May to 10.70.

Monday's weekly export inspection showed 20.6 m.b. of wheat was inspected to be shipped near term.   This was up from 17.2 the week prior and four week average of 16.5.   Though up, it is still looked at by the trade as a weak demand indicator near term.   Wheat is all about the emerging winter wheat crop.   Monday's 3:00p crop condition report put our winter wheat crop at 42% in good to excellent condition down 1% from the week prior and 5% under a year ago.   This pushed wheat up 8 cents after the opening as the trade had hoped an improvement.   This is a very low rating showing wheat is in need of warmer, sunny days and more timely rain.   Key producer Texas came in unchanged on the week at 11% G-E.   Oklahoma 16% down 9 from the week prior and number one wheat producing state Kansas at 37% G-E down 2 on the week.   There is some weather improvement expected as Friday through next Tuesday- looks warmer with .50 to 2.00 inches of rain in the hard red winter wheat states with temperatures in the seventies.   This wheat crop is still in shock from the weather from mid-March through April 4^th when the cold temps were complicated by moisture largely in the form of snow.   It does seem to be changing to the better however, so next week's ratings should improve.   We're stuck in a range between 5.10 and 5.60 the last five weeks.   It looks to continue through Friday in this range with a lean to the downside.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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