AgCanada Expects Modest Gain in Special Crops

VANCOUVER - Jan 27/09 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada is looking for a modest increase in specialty crop plantings in Canada this year, with Bobby Morgan of the Market Analysis Branch in Winnipeg predicting total area will rise just 0.9% to just under 7.3 million acres.

Gains in lentil seedings were fully offset by a predicted 7.2% decline in field pea area. However, forecast increases in dry edible bean, chickpea, canary and sunflower seed area should pull total seedings up over last year.

At the same time, Agriculture Canada is looking for farmers to reduce wheat and durum area, while increasing land in barley, corn, canola and soybeans. It expects areas for oats, flaxseed and summerfallow are expected to be relatively unchanged from 2008-09.

Discussing the situation facing specialty crops in Canada, Morgan said, "For 2008-09 to-date, prices for most peas and special crops in Canada, with the exception of dry peas and canary seed, have risen from 2007-08 due to relatively tight supplies. Total Canadian exports for all peas and special crops are forecast to fall marginally due to the world economic slowdown. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise for most crops."

Based on this, he believes that in 2009 "total area seeded to peas and special crops in Canada is forecast to be unchanged from 2008-09, with decreased area for dry peas and dry beans, and increases for chickpeas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Average yields are generally expected to decrease from 2008 and trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada.

"Total production in Canada is forecast to fall by 6% to 5.0 million metric tons (MT). Total supply is expected to rise marginally to 6.3 million MT, as higher carry-in stocks more than offset the fall in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly due to the higher supply. Average prices are generally forecast to fall but remain unchanged for chickpeas and canary seed.

"The main factors to watch are commodity prices and input costs, precipitation in Canada over the winter, the Canada-US dollar exchange rate, the impacts of the world recession and planting progress in major producing regions, especially the Indian subcontinent, United States, European Union, Australia and the Middle East."

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