World Bean Acreage Rising

VANCOUVER - Jan 25/09 - SNS -- Land in dry edible beans around the world looks to be increasing in 2009, largely because bids to growers have not declined nearly as much as those for soybeans, corn and other major grains and oilseeds.

Interestingly, there seems to be a greater of sense of certainty about potential acreage increases outside the top two-thirds of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region than there is in the United States or Canada.

Some market participants in those countries are looking for dry edible bean acreage to decline in 2009, while others believe high prices will combine with good movement to boost seeded area. The debate is over the extent to which these positives are offset by high seed costs and unexpected declines in the price of fertilizer and other petro-based chemicals.

This debate is clearly reflected in the various acreage predictions. Gary Lucier of the USDA's Economic Research Service thinks land in dry edible beans in the United States could rise 10% in 2009.

"With stocks of several dry bean classes likely to be low again by next summer, reduced supplies and strong prices (relative to historical trend) over the coming marketing year will backstop the need for increased acreage next spring. However, dry bean acreage has declined for three consecutive years, the general economic outlook is weak, and the industry continues to face a substantial (although weakened) challenge from traditional rotational crops such as corn, soybeans, barley, and wheat.

"Although prices for these grains have declined substantially in recent months, they remain above long run trends. However, dry bean prices are also well above their long run averages and have proven much stickier on their way down as the industry resists price reductions. As a result, potential dry bean returns are currently very competitive with virtually all alternative crops."

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