What a fun way to start a Monday. OPEC, auto bailouts, the dollar and the Fed seem to be driving the markets, including oil, nutty once again. There is so much to worry about in such a short time and fear is fundamental. Concerns over the economy and OPEC are causing stress in the oil market and those concerns can at times be bullish and at times they can be bearish. Today oil is bullish as we talk about OPEC on the surface but in the background the auto bailout and the fed is on our mind. The dollar is taking the  auto bail out badly because it believes that it will basically cause everything else to be more expensive. America's prestige is on trial, at  least in the currency market as it views this bail out is a sign of weakness. Now this should be a worry to the Fed that starts its two day meeting and has already signaled another rate cut. The dollar thinks the Fed is backed into a corner and the outcome will not be good for the dollar. Can the Fed offer up any surprises?

We know what OPEC does when they are backed into a corner. They start talking big about a production cut. We have threats from OPEC and Russia to cut production and the bulls hope that the market may attempt a short term bottom. Well what will OPEC do? Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri told Dow Jones news wires that the producer group would like to see a substantial production cut from non-OPEC nations like Russia in conjunction with another OPEC output reduction widely expected this week.  El-Badri said he believed the global oil market was oversupplied by around 100 million barrels. Yet Dow Jones also reported Russian oil company  LUK Oil  is indicating that OPEC expects Russia to cut production by 300,000 barrels a day. That is less that I thought they would want from the world's second largest producer.    

And then of course as the market gets all giddy about this proposed cut, today the big question is whether there will be compliance. Dow Jones reports that the group compliance with that last two announced reductions has been patchy. The International Energy Agency in Paris estimates that OPEC members have implemented just over half of their October agreement to cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day. I wonder how their new comrades the Russians will feel about this overt cheating. Maybe they will cheat too.

Frigid cold temperatures are driving up the market as well. It is awfully cold awfully early in Chicago which can only be attributed to global warming. Ask me if I care about the polar ice caps right now. Go ahead, I dare you.  

See me today and every day on the Fox Business Network. Also email me at  pflynn@alaron.co or call me at 800-935-6487 if you have any questions or to open your account.

We're short January crude from apprx 5760 on a double rollover!!!!!!! Stop 510!!!!!

Buy January heating oil at 14400 - stop 13500.

We're long January RBOB from apprx 9000 -  stop to 9900!!!

Buy January Natural gas at 510 - stop 470.

Have a GREAT day!