World Coarse Grain Supply Up, Ethanol Use Down

WASHINGTON - Dec 11/08 - SNS -- International coarse grain supples for 2008-09 are up 7.3 million metric tons (MT) this month with beginning stocks raised 1.6 million to 155.72 million MT and production raised 5.7 million to 1097.41 million MT, according to forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

The world's beginning stocks are increased partly reflecting upward revisions to 2007-08 production for Australia and Brazil sorghum and South Africa corn. Increased 2008-09 global coarse grain output is driven by higher projected corn production for China, EU-27, Canada, and Ukraine; higher projected barley production for Canada; and higher sorghum production for countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.

China corn production is raised 4 million MT based on early provincial reports. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million MT based on the latest reported data. Canada corn production is raised 0.7 million MT and barley production is raised 0.6 million MT based on the latest Statistics Canada estimates. Ukraine corn production is raised 0.5 million MT in line with yield indications from the final stages of harvesting.

Partly offsetting is a reduction of 1.5 million MT for Brazil corn output on early season dryness for the first crop and lower expected area for the second crop. Corn production is also lowered 1.0 million MT for South Africa reflecting reduced area as indicated by planting intentions. Oats production for Australia is lowered 0.2 million MT based on the latest government estimate.

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