Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 18/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Oil bears put on the full court press as the December option expiration failed to give the market pause. Is oil headed to oblivion or are there any signs that this market can find a bottom.

Oil is being overwhelmed with the weight of the global economy and is finding it hard to stand on its own. It is not what the market is focusing on that will give you a sense of the market's mood but more so  what the market is ignoring. Take for example piracy on the high seas and pipeline explosions and violence in Nigeria. These stories that before July would have sent the energy complex soaring are now just a distant noise in this market's bearish obsession.

Still as bad as things look we have to acknowledge that the market will at some point find a bottom. Or if not a bottom a trading range that will keep the market moving. Winter is here and we are getting off to a rather cold start. Oil could try to find a bottom near $50.00. Still if $45.00 does not hold it is possible that the next target is $35 a barrel.  The difference between t$35.00 and $45.00 is the depth of damage to the world economy. The monthly charts for oil seem to suggest that the downside in oil and the stocks have about run their course, still the worry is that neither have any solid signs of bottoming action. The next few trading sessions may be critical in determining the next big move for oil. The rest of the year  it may try to test $50 and  hold there. If $50 can hold through the rest of this year then we should see a solid bottom to work off of. If not, we start playing for $43.00. Right now we still sell rallies but perhaps start looking at some calls strategies going out longer term. Position trend followers stay short to the bitter end and day traders should see some great opportunities.  

 Make sure you keep up on the latest by watching me daily on the Fox Business Network and by signing up for my daily email blast. Day traders and option traders just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at  pflynn@alaron.com  to open your account.

Our short December crude from  apprx 7439 was sold on Friday on a double rollover at apprx 5704!!! We sold January apprx 5760!!! Stop should be 6100!!!

We're long  December heating oil from  apprx 18000 -  stop 17600.

Sell December RBOB at 13600 - stop 14400.

Buy December natural gas at 515 -  stop 500.

Have a GREAT day!

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

pflynn@alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.