Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 18/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

-11/18/08-

-CORN-

Monday's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 25 million bushels of corn were inspected for near term export, unchanged from the week prior, but under a year ago of 57 m.b. were 200 m.b. under the year prior. Importers have clearly been patient on purchases, feeling out when lows may be in before entering as larger buyers to build resources. To date, it has been hand to mouth purchases only as needed. The crop progress report after the close Monday, showed 78% of the crop is harvested, versus 97% a year ago.

The problem is, corn producers in our Western grain belt are further behind. South Dakota 59%, North Dakota 33% and Nebraska 67%. If this corn doesn't get in and sits until   Spring, we can expect large losses form Winter storms that hit worst through the Dakotas. This could leave some corn laying down and unable to harvest. This week looks to have soil too soft to get in the fields, furthering talk of harvest problems.

Last week, we saw short covering of all the breaks, suggesting selling is done. Mondays close over minor resistance was a buy signal. A close today over 3.80 basis December corn is needed to keep the up trend intact. If realized 4.25 is next stop. A close under 3.70 sets up 3.50 as support.

-BEANS-

Monday's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 36.8 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, up from 34.2 the week prior and 27 a year ago. We are  17 m.b. over the year to date figures of a year ago. It's a continuation of our pick up in demand the last month, as China entered in a bigger way than we saw in August and September. Monday's Crop Progress Report showed 95% of our crop is now harvested. End of story. Like corn, beans too spent all last week buying back shorts off the breaks and a close over minor resistance Monday. This left beans chart positive and a rally off our initial turn around Tuesday's lower open. Can it continue? Possibly. Next week is month end and a holiday shortened week, leaving traders wanting to bank profits, which largely come form short positions.

January beans found chart support at 9.00 today, a close under 8.70 is next support. A close over 9.00 and especially over 9.20 and 9.70 is next stop.

-WHEAT-

The Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 14.2 m.b. of wheat was inspected for new term export, up 1 m.b. from the week prior, but under a year ago of 25 m.b. leaving us 100 m.b. under a year agos year to date number. Nothing has changed from a demand point. We are, and will continue through March, to be a third port of origin for wheat by importers. After March, we will being the the key yield development time and harvest 60 days away. Its April 1 on out that we move to the front as a primary point of purchase for new crop delivery. Monday's Crop Condition Report put 66% of our Winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition. This was down 2% from the week prior but 21% better than a year ago. Key producers read like this: Colorado 73%, Kansas 71%, Oklahoma 63% and Texas 50%. These were all lower than the week prior. Our soft red winter wheat states improves with Ohio 73%, Indiana 74% and Illinois 81%, all up. No problems in the big picture, but we will watch Texas and Oklahoma closer as they've turned dry. After building that head and shoulders formation I noted last week, wheat broke through resistance   Friday, then pulled down to support Monday with heavy buying today. December support lies at 5.20. A close under here and 5.00 is next, yet a close over 5.70 and 6.10 is next resistance.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.