STAT Communications Ag Market News

Fourth Largest Soybean Crop on Pace

WASHINGTON - Nov 10/08 - SNS -- Soybean production is forecast at 2.92 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the October forecast but up 9% from last year, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from October 1 and down 2.4 bushels from 2007. Compared with October 1, yields are forecast lower or unchanged across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, with the exception of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. Yields increased from the October 1 forecast in Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, New York, and Virginia. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.4 million acres, unchanged from October 1 but up 16% from 2007.

Growers expect to harvest 74.4 million acres, unchanged from October 1 but up 16% from 2007. Harvested area, if realized, will be the second largest on record.

The November objective yield data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as late planting this spring led to slower than normal development. Compared with final counts for 2007, pod counts are down in all of the seven major States except Indiana, which is showing a slight increase of 7 pods per 18 square feet. The largest decreases from 2007 are in Nebraska and Ohio, down 227 and 291 pods per 18 square feet, respectively.

At the beginning of October, harvest progress was 15 points behind last year's pace and 12 points behind the 5-year average. Freezing temperatures in mid-October ended the growing season for soybeans across the northern Great Plains and the upper Midwest, but virtually all of the soybeans were dropping leaves by that point and were not damaged by the frost. There were some minor harvest delays during October due to periods of rain. However, in general, harvest progressed well during October, and by the end of the month was within a few percentage points of normal. As of November 2, growers had harvested 86% of their acreage, compared with 90% last year and the 5-year average of 89%. Harvest progress lagged behind normal in a majority of States, but was at or ahead of normal in the Great Lakes States, Kentucky, Louisiana, and the Ohio Valley. By the beginning of November, harvest was 95% complete or more in Louisiana, Minnesota and Ohio. If realized, the yield forecast in Arkansas will be the highest on record.

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