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Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Oct 10/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

 The Energy Report for Friday, October 10th 2008

Go ahead, make my day. OPEC calls an emergency OPEC meeting for  November 18th hinting that they may cut production and the oil market laughed in their face.    Why would the markets take OPEC seriously when the economic dominoes are crashing down around the globe.  

Some OPEC members are living in a dream world where they think that a production cut at this point might actually matter. The global credit crisis and the global market meltdown will have little sympathy for many OPEC countries that squandered their years of record profits and became more dependent on constantly rising oil profits. Once again in the quest for the political and economic power that comes from oil, comes  another seismic shift away from the oil producing countries again back to the consumers.

First of all assuming that the hawkish members of the cartel can get the Saudis to agree to cut production  is highly  likely due to the  price spike that  would surely be soon to follow and thereby  cause more economic pain. Many major purchases of oil usually rely on some type of bank credit anyway and it will be harder to get that credit even if you want to buy the oil. Higher prices and the lack of available credit will slow demand even more and OPEC oil producers desperate for cash will cheat on production in a desperate attempt to hang onto declining world market share. In fact this credit crisis will become so bad for oil demand that even if you have nightmares because you believe in the  peak oil theory, demand declines should help you sleep well for a few mores decades or so.

Of course this will be a bitter pill for the oil producers to take that had become intoxicated with power as the result of high oil prices. Guys like Vladimir Putin in Russia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Ahmadinejad in Iran that all rode into power surrounding the circumstances of a global economic growth oil price fed boom will be exposed for the real nothings that they are. The oil pendulum has started to swing the other way and will knock these guys on their backside and OPEC members will turn on each other and start eating their own in a desperate fight for economic survival. When you're whole economy and the building blocks of your political power is tied to high oil prices you will rise and fall with the price.      

OPEC's best move at this point would be to pump as much oil as they can to try to save the economy from a meltdown so they could then have a chance to sell oil at a higher price in the future. Of course desperate men do desperate things and these are desperate times.

And  in these desperate times you need to stay tuned to the Fox Business Network and watch me every day  for the latest developments! Also continue  to read  my Energy Report. I have been gratified by all the calls and emails and I am glad many of you have done well in these markets when many others obviously have not. Even in bear markets there are tremendous opportunities if you recognize them. Feel free to call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at  pflynn@alaron.com to open your account.            

We're short November crude from apprx 10800 - lower stop to 9250!!!!

Sell November heating oil at  24500 -  stop 25000.

We're short November RBOB from apprx 26500 -  stop to 21000!!!

We're long November natural gas from apprx 670 - stop 640.

Have a GREAT day and weekend!  

 

 

 

 


Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

pflynn@alaron.com



DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

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