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Alaron Energy CommentCHICAGO - Sep 16/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp. Crude crash. Crude oil continues to crash as the economic world around it goes through historic turmoil. Can the Fed save the day? Lehman is gone and can Merrill Lynch continue to be bullish on America if they no longer exist? Even as Rome is burning, oil bulls are still living in a world of denial as some refuse to come to grips with what is happening around them. All day yesterday I got calls and emails from oil bulls that tried to convince me that what was happening in the market was not justified by the fundamentals. I heard that all oil and gas production is shut down or that refineries are under water and that world demand for oil is still strong. All I can say is that it is this same type of denial that brought Lehman down. It looked like Ike did more damage to demand than to supply and the surrounding economic fire storm will accelerate the demand drop. And please don't try to tell me that demand from the rest of the world will support oil. It will not. Demand is - I repeat - slowing in the rest of the globe so please come to grips with that fact. The world's economies have not decoupled from the US economy and the fallout from the crisis will be felt around the globe. Yes, we are seeing demand from China falter. Just ask the Japanese refineries that are cutting back on production due to lack of demand. Ask Jean Claude Trichet who until recently said that the biggest threat to his economy was inflation and not that pesky little crisis in the US. That, he said, was the US problem and his economy was just fine! Well eat those words Jean Claude because it appears that your economy and oil demand is slowing as well. That is not to say oil cannot rebound but those that tried to tell you that high oil prices had no consequence on the world economy, even with the US slowing, are being proven wrong. I said oil was going back to double digits and here we are. Now we will continue to sell rallies as our near term target is $85 a barrel and longer term to $67. Yes we are oversold so if the Fed cuts rates we could rebound but oil will have to face a softening world economy. With the financial world on edge you must watch the Fox business Network all day long. If you don't have it, this is why you need it! Call your cable operator today! I will do my best to take all your calls and answer all my emails to try to help all of you today! I know from all the calls and emails yesterday there are a lot of you out there that need some help. If you do my number is 800-935-6487 and email at pflynn@alaron.com so you can open your account with me. Sell November crude at 10000 - stop 10200. Sell October heating oil at 29900 - stop 30300. Sell October RBOB at 28500 - stop 30300. Buy October natural gas at 680 - stop 670. Have a GREAT day! Phil Flynn Alaron Research Team 800.563.9510 pflynn@alaron.com DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.
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