Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Sep 12/08 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Cattle feeders held off selling last week long enough to get prices

with $0.50 per cwt live of a week earlier for the full week. The live

prices through Thursday were down nearly $2.00 per cwt which is much

more consistent with the nearly $2-4 per cwt decline in wholesale beef

prices Friday morning of last week compared to a week earlier.

Cow slaughter continues to run above a year earlier. For the year

through the week ending August 23 total cow slaughter was 9.1 percent

above the same period in 2007, dairy cow slaughter was up four percent

and beef cow slaughter for this period was up 13 percent from 12

months earlier. The rate of increase in slaughter has speeded up. For

the four week period ending August 26, slaughter was up for all by

31.8 percent, dairy cow up 14.4 percent and beef up 27.9 percent from

last year.

Certainly the number of heifers retained is a very important factor as

to changes in cow herd size. However, with this much increase in cow

slaughter the odds seem high that producers are speeding up the

decline in the cow herd, which is something the industry must do. The

quicker the reduction in the herd happens, the quicker cattle prices

will increase back to profit level.

Compared to two weeks ago, feeder steers at Oklahoma City were steady

to $1 per cwt higher, feed heifers steady and calves steady to $4 per

cwt higher than 14 days ago.

The price for medium and large frame Number One steers by weight

groups were: 400-500 pounds $119-134 per cwt, 500-600 pounds

$112-123.75 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $102-115.75 per cwt,

600-700-pound yearlings $113.75-117.25 per cwt, 700-800 pounds

$110.50-113 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $102-111.50 per cwt.

Average dressing cows even with the increase in slaughter number are

higher then 12 months earlier. For this week in 2007, average dressing

breakers were selling for $52-55.25. This week the same grade of cows

sold for $56-59 per cwt, average dressing bones this week last year

sold from $51.75-53 per cwt, this week the same grade of cows sold for

$57.50-61 per cwt. Lean cows average dressing were $48.50-51.50 last

year and were $51.50-55 per cwt this week. Light cows average dressing

were $48.50-49 per cwt this week these cows sold for $51-50.55 per cwt

at Oklahoma City.

These higher cow prices ever with larger cow slaughter is probably due

to two things, higher beef prices and reduced beef imports which is

mostly boneless beef for processing. For January-June, beef and veal

imports were down 21.5 percent from last year.

Wholesale beef prices Friday morning showed Choice beef at $160.76 per

cwt up $4.50 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef at $158.65 per

cwt was up $6.43 per cwt from seven days earlier.

The weighted average price of fed cattle live for the five-market area

at $96.20 per cwt through Thursday down $0.80 per cwt from a week

earlier. The weighted average carcass price for negotiated cattle for

the five-market area at $151.54 per cwt was down $2.86 per cwt from

last week.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 657

thousand head, up 1.9percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

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