Fourth Largest Soybean Crop

WASHINGTON - Sep 12/08 - SNS -- Soybean production in the United States is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1% from the August forecast but up 13% from last year, according to the latest USDA crop production estimates.

Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in the mid-Atlantic States, the central and eastern Corn Belt, Louisiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields increased or are unchanged from the August 1 forecast across the Southeast and the remainder of the Great Plains. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17% from 2007.

Area for harvest is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17% from 2007. Harvested area, if realized, will be the third largest on record.

The September objective yield data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as late planting this spring led to slower than normal development. Compared with final counts for 2007, pod counts are down in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. The largest decrease is in Nebraska, down 312 pods per 18 square feet from 2007's record high pod count as dry conditions across the eastern part of the State have reduced yield expectations for much of the non- irrigated soybeans.

After beginning the month 21 points behind the normal pace for setting pods, the crop developed rapidly during August and progress had nearly returned to normal by the end of the month. As of August 31, ninety-four% of the U.S. crop was at or beyond the pod-setting stage, behind last year and the 5-year average by 4 and 3 points, respectively. The only State where pod-setting was not within 4 points of the normal pace was Missouri, where only 69% of the soybeans were at or beyond the pod-setting stage, 25 points behind normal.

As of August 31, 57% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 1 percentage point above the same week in 2007 but down 4 percentage points from the previous week. Crop conditions declined or remained unchanged during August across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, with the exception of Kansas. Decreases of more than 10 points in percent rated good to excellent occurred in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Michigan, Tennessee, and Wisconsin as abnormally dry conditions prevailed in those areas. Meanwhile, the only States that showed an increase in condition ratings during the month were Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. If realized, the yield forecast in New York will match the record high set in 2006.

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