Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Aug 12/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Gain one pipeline and lose another. Russia pulls back and so does the energy complex. Did we put a floor     under this market?

Dow Jones newswires reports the Russian army has confirmed an order to halt its advance in the Georgia advance. Not that they will give up occupied Georgian territory mind you but at least they have halted the advance. At the same time BP says there is no evidence that Russia attacked the precious BTC pipeline. That should be good news and I guess it is but the bad news is the Nigerian militants are back to work.

Dow Jones news wires reported that Nigerian militants claimed they destroyed a pipeline supplying gas to a key oil refinery in southern Rivers state. Yet this time the militants are not the Group known as MEND - The Movement for the Emancipation  of the NIGER Delta -  but a claim by two previously unknown groups calling themselves Niger Delta Vigilante and Niger Delta Patriotic Force.  The attack was the latest to hit the volatile, oil-rich Niger Delta in recent months.

Demand seems to be slowing but is the IEA getting the message? The IEA is saying that world oil demand will rise higher than expected. Demand is supposed to rise by 930,000 barrels a day in 2009. Dow Jones Newswires says that the International Energy Agency is sticking by its forecast that   China's oil demand would grow 5.6% in year in 2008, but said the Olympics, power shortages and possible policy moves means there is considerable risk regarding the outlook. The IEA, "At present, despite having gone through half the year, China's demand remains remarkably opaque," the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report on the oil market.  Dow says that the IEA is forecasting China's oil demand will average 8 million barrels a day this year and then reach 8.4 million barrels a day in 2009, up 5.7% on year.SPA  Part of the problem is a lack of data on stock levels, which makes it hard for analysts to determine whether there is a big enough inventory build in China to weigh on demand.  China's imports of oil products have been surging in recent months but the IEA said it was unclear whether these volumes were being stockpiled ahead of the Olympic Games or making up for the substantial loss of production from small refiners. Imports may also have been underpinned by buoyant demand growth fueled by economic growth

The race for the great north pole. Reuters is reporting that a U.S. Coast Guard cutter will embark on an Arctic voyage this week to determine the extent of the continental shelf north of Alaska and map the ocean floor. This  will be  data that could be used for oil and natural gas exploration. Reuters says that U.S. and University of New Hampshire scientists on the Coast Guard Cutter Healy will leave Barrow, Alaska, on Thursday on a three week journey. They will create a three dimensional map of the Arctic Ocean floor in a relatively unexplored area known as the Chukchi borderland. The Healy will launch again on September 6, when it will be joined by Canadian scientists aboard an icebreaker, who will help collect data to determine the thickness of sediment in the region. That is one factor a country can use to define its extended continental shelf. With oil at $114 a barrel, after hitting a record $147 in July, and sea ice melting fast, countries like Russia and the United States are looking north for possible energy riches. "These are places nobody's gone before, in essence, so this is a first step," said Margaret Hays, the director of the oceanic affairs office at the U.S. State Department. She said the data collected may provide information to the public about future oil and natural gas sources for the United States. This will be the fourth year that the United States has collected data to define the limits of its continental shelf in the Arctic. Russia, which has claimed 460,000 square miles  of Arctic waters, last summer, planted its flag on the ocean floor of the North Pole.

Natural gas rallies on three tropical waves. One of the three could pose a problem for gas. Stay tuned.

See me today and every day on the Fox Business Network! Also each week on Fox Chicago! And it is time for you to sign for your free trail of Alaronenergies and your copy of the Phil Flynn Energy Blast! Imagine the convenience of getting blasted by Phil Flynn every morning in your inbox! What a great way to start your day! And it is easy! All you have to do is call 800-935-6487 or email me at  pflynn@alaron.com  to open your account!

We're short  September crude from apprx  12570 - lower stop to 12040!!

Sell September heating oil at  33000 -  stop 34100.

Sell September RBOB at 31000 -  stop 31300.

Buy September natural gas at 830 -  stop 810.

Have a GREAT data!

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

pflynn@alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.