Australia Pulse Estimate Cut Again

VANCOUVER - Jul 29/08 - SNS -- Pulse production levels in Australia are continuing to drop with the release of each production update, with output of all pulses now expected to reach 1.653 million metric tons (MT) this year, down from last month's 1.764 million MT prediction and the 2.092 million ton crop forecast in May.

While the amount of land in pulses ended up smaller than initially expected, with the seeded area estimate dropping from 1.49 million hectares last month to this month's 1.47 million hectares -- forecast yields were also cut because of "continuing the dry conditions across most of Australia". Pulses Australia stressed, however, "The forecast production targets provided are conservative estimates at this stage, and could change dramatically in response to spring conditions.

"Seasonal forecasts from the National Climate Centre continue to point to above average rainfall for the northern region of NSW and into Queensland, and remain pessimistic for the southern states with only a 35-40% chance of achieving average rainfall to September 30."

For South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, rainfall has improved considerably in recent weeks, providing "renewed confidence in pulse crop prospects. The lower rainfall regions received only 10 to 25mm, but also have a smaller area of pulses sown. There is still not a great deal of moisture in soil profiles, and the continuation of timely rainfall from August to October is going to be essential to achieve respectable pulse yields.

"Crop conditions vary greatly across Western Australia after a mostly dry June. The northern wheatbelt is in good shape where lupins are outstanding and may rival cereals for yield. The mid west region has had a late start but conditions are promising if the remainder of winter is wet. The great southern region is exceptional due to no waterlogging and warmer than average temperatures. The central wheatbelt and lakes region is fair, while the Esperance region, eastern and south eastern wheatbelts are poor with no real prospects of an average season."

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