Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Jul 22/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Our laundry list of reports began with our weekly 10:00a Monday Weekly Export Inspection Report showing 29.8 million bushels of corn was inspected by the USDA for near term shipment up from 28.1 the week prior- but under our four week average of 33 and a year ago of 37.6 m.b.   It shows we are up a fraction on demand after the recent break in prices but well under our recent past demand as importers sit on their hands and await better value as rains keep crop conditions improving.   Monday's 3:00p Crop Condition Report showed 65% of the crop is in good to excellent condition up from 64 the week prior and 62% a year ago.   The last five weeks read like this:   64% G-E, 62, 61, 59, 57%; a constant improvement.   The wet weather that was bullish during planting, creating planting delays now becomes bearish as rain makes grain.   WXRISK.COM sees more rain across the Midwest Thursday, into Saturday.   Next week at this early point, looks cooler in the eighties and more rain but it is too early to lock in on next week.   A close under 6.10 basis December futures sets up next support at 5.75 then 5.20 if a close under 5.75 occurs that will not happen unless weather remains a driving force.   Weather can flip the other way, any day.   Trade what ever the next forecast says.   My next report will be Thursday instead of Friday.  

Monday's post opening weekly export inspection report showed 3.5 m.b. beans were inspected for near term export, down from 9.1 the week prior.   This is 5.2 a year ago and our four week average 10.7 m.b.   An apparent end to the Argentine farm strike problem and improving weather over U.S. bean fields leave importers awaiting potential lower cash bid.   Monday's weekly crop condition report put our bean crop at 61% in G-E condition up from 59 the week prior and equal a year ago.   The last vie week's read like this: 59, 59, 58, 57, 56% G-E.   Like corn, beans too have generally turned the good weather into a good crop to date.   Keep in mind bean maturity is 3 weeks behind so august will be the month yields are made or lost, not July.   If weather remains bearish, this week we should push lower unless forecasts flip for next week and that becomes clearer Wednesday and Thursday.   Today I had first support for November futures at 13.80.   A close under and 13.45 is next stop.   Technically we need a close over resistance of 14.60 to turn charts up and that will not occur, unless weather outlooks start to change.   Trade the next forecast.   For those who want to listen to my Wednesday 2:00p Webinar Session discussing the grains for 20 minutes can sign up by calling:   800-542-1022.   You will get a password to use by calling 5 minutes before 2:00p.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 28.3 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export up from 22.7 the week prior, 20.4 a year ago; and our four week average of 15.7 m.b.   Demand has been strong since the harvest of our hard red winter wheat crop began three weeks ago as millers warehouses and exporter bins were empty from last year.   We are seeing demand now a little stronger than expected, as end users are concerned about recent weather problems and condition declines in our spring wheat crop states.   They are loading up on this winter crop incase the spring harvest comes in lower than expected.   Monday's crop progress report put our spring wheat crop put our spring wheat crop with 95% in its heading stage when yields and quality are made or lost.   The crop condition report put the crop in 63% G-E condition up from 61 the week prior, but under a year ago of 75%.   After two consecutive weeks of lower ratings the trade was surprised by the increase.   The September Minneapolis spring wheat futures have major support at 8.50.   We need a close over 9.00 to turn chart bullish with a gap high potential of 9.25 and chart resistance of 9.50.

End.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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