Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Jul 7/08 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

The DX opened higher at 73.34 and rose to a morning Hi of 73.49 as President Bush sent a positive message to fellow G-8 members in todays conference, that the U.S. is behind a 'strong Dollar', which should also be in their best interest. Prices retraced as equity prices could not hold onto early gains, sending the DX to a mid-day Lo of 73.08 as we head into the afternoon session. As the 'financials' reacted adversely to news that FNMA and FHLMC may need to raise additional capital, the DX posted a daily Lo of 72.855, before bouncing to a close of 72.97, down 2 tics.  The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Expect more 'jawboning' and positioning to strengthen the Dollar at the G-8 conference. Weak economic data from the Housing sector and questions about the upcoming 'earnings'  may weigh on  prices. Keep an eye on the 9-day MA of 72.85 and prepare to cut losses on a close below. A lower open may find Support at 72.72 and 72.47, while an open above 73.105 should find Resistance at 73.355 and 73.74.  

The BP opened lower at 1.9545 against a stronger DX and weaker than expected Mfg. data. Prices rebounded as the U.S.equity markets sold off, pressuring the DX and sending the BP to a mid-day Hi of 1.9689, before drifting lower into the close of 1.9671, down 42 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key off developments from the G-8 meeting and the DX. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.9757 and 1.9842, while an open below 1.9651 may find Support at 1.9566 and 1.9460.

The CD opened lower at .9777 and slid to a morning Lo of .9764 against a stronger DX and weaker oil prices. Prices rebounded to a mid-day Hi of .9844, before drifting lower during afternoon trading and ending the session at .9817, up 34 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will need to key on oil prices and the DX to determine the CD direction. A higher open should find Resistance at .9853 and .9888, while an open below .9808 may find Support at .9773 and .9728.

The EC opened lower at 1.5588 against the stronger DX and weaker than expected German Industrial Production that sent prices to a morning Lo of 1.5564. Prices rebounded against the weaker DX and rose to a mid-day Hi of 1.5698, before trailing lower towards the close and ending the session at 1.5673, up 34 tics. The s/t trend  remains 'negative' w/ neutral  momentum indicators. The weaker economic data suggests lower prices  could  test the 50% Fib Ret level of 1.5545 on  a DX  rally or more adverse economic data. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5729 and 1.5785, while an open below 1.5642  may find Support at 1.5586 and 1.5499.    

The JY opened lower at .9322 and slid to a morning Lo of .9316, before reversing and climbing to a mid-day Hi of .9408. Prices retraced during the afternoon session and ended the session at .9385, down 24 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. A higher open should find Resistance at .9426 and .9467, while an open below .9371 may find Support at .9330 and .9275.

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.