No Change in Specialty Outlook

VANCOUVER - May 30/08 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada held the line on its latest predictions for what will be produced in 2008 and left most of its supply and demand estimates unchanged in its latest monthly review of the specialty crop sector.

"For 2008-09, total area seeded to pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to decrease marginally from 2007-08," Agriculture Canada's Bobby Morgan wrote, "as lower areas for lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, sunflower seed and canary seed are partly offset by higher areas for dry peas and mustard seed.

"Statistics Canada's (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 20-31 and released on April 21, provided estimates for most pulse and special crops, but for some crops the area has been forecast by AAFC. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada.

"Total production in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally to 4.5 million metric tons (MT). Total supply is expected to fall due to lower carry-in stocks and production. This report incorporates information from the STC March 31, 2008 estimate of stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply, while domestic use is expected to remain unchanged. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to historically low levels for most crops. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase in 2008-09 for all pulse and special crops, with the exception of dry peas. The main factors to watch are: petroleum prices and growing conditions in Canada and the major importing and exporting countries."

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