Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - May 1/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

*This is a rare Thursday Report because there  will be no report Friday*

Today's weekly export sales report showed 551 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week, off   29% from the week prior and 22% under our four week average.   Asian sales were 256 t.m.t. vs. 485 the week prior.   A little concern here on exports as there has been a clear slow down the last month but not enough to effect prices.   It is all about planting delays for corn.   Monday's crop progress report put planting at 10% vs. the five year average of 35%.   Significant rain totals will fall across the Midwest late Thursday through Saturday, keeping farmers out of the fields.   WXRISK.COM sees another possibly big rain next Wednesday and Thursday; followed by another system May 10^th and 11^th.   Next week is set up to be wetter than this week slowing planting further and lending thought to the psychology growers may plant less corn as preferred planting dates close and switch to beans.   If next week's forecast holds, we should see December Futures push to 6.55 to 6.660.   Support lies Friday at 6.20 and Monday 6.22.

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 310 t.m.t. of beans were sold last week off 18% from the week prior and 23% under our four week average.   China was in for only 63 t.m.t. as they seem to be backing off on U.S. purchases with thinking the Argentine farm strike will end soon- as talks with the government take place.   Fear for beans into next week are if planting delays for corn continue growers may switch acres from corn to beans.   We saw a lot of spreading by buying corn, selling beans early week.   If we come in Monday and we look to get those major rain systems mid and late week, look for a higher open followed with selling as traders bull spread long corn against beans.   Be careful here…

November has resistance at 12.40 Friday and 12.35 Monday with support at 12.00 today then 11.60.

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 176 t.m.t. of wheat was sold for old crop sales before June 1^st and 323 t.m.t.; sold for new crop sales after June 1^st.   We are close enough now on old and new crop dates that traders will combine them.   The total was 499 t.m.t. a friendly number for this date but we need 550 to 700 t.m.t. weekly after June 1^st- when harvest of our winter crop is underway.   Rain looks to keep Chicago soft red and Kansas City hard red futures on the defensive with three systems feeding moisture from today through Saturday; with two more systems mid and late week.   Quality levels are low but we barely have the head developed leaving May 1^st through May 25^th, as the key period of yield and quality development.   If we turn hot and dry in May, we could add two or more dollars to wheat quickly but near term weather suggests further pressure.   July new crop K.C. Futures find support at 8.20 then 8.00.   We need a close over 8.60 by Monday to turn bullish.

End.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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