Alaron Softs Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 30/08 - SNS -- Following is the orange juice, cotton and coffee comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

July sugar re-tested and held its monthly low (11.71 on 4/1) today. Prices have fallen over 150 points since making a monthly high on 4/16 of 13.59. There are several reasons why this has happend. First, small speculators have been holding a large net-long position in this market for quite some time. They are still showing a net long position of over 225,000 contracts, according to the last Commitment of Trader's Report. This market became technically overbought and when the buying dried up, longs began to liquidate. Second, the market has  been pressured by the overall weakness in the commodity markets. Crude oil prices have dropped over $5.00 this week and gold prices have dropped over $30. Third, the market was pressured by the weakness in the May contract, which is expiring today. The market is anticipating that deliveries could be over 10,000 contracts. Fourth, the short term supply and demand has not been favorable. There will be ample supply of sugar as Brazil has begun their harvest and demand has been weak. Support for July is at 11.70. Resistance is at 12.00.

Boyd Cruel

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

bcruel@alaron.com

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