Smaller Special Crop Harvest Likely for Canada

VANCOUVER - Apr 30/08 - SNS -- Canada is looking at a general decrease in prospective specialty crop production levels this year if farmers stick with the seeding intentions, judging from Agriculture Canada's latest regular review of the sector.

For 2008-09, total area seeded to pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to decrease by 3% from 2007-08, as lower areas for lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, canary seed and sunflower seed are partly offset by higher areas for dry peas and mustard seed, writes Agriculture Canada's Bobby Morgan.

"Statistics Canada's (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 20-31 and released on April 21, provided estimates for most pulse and special crops by province, but in some cases the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC," he said.

"The actual seeded areas may differ from the intentions due to changes in the market outlook and expected prices, producer reaction to the STC seeding intentions report and soil moisture conditions at the time of seeding. To date, only a small amount of seeding has been completed. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada."

Total specialty crop production in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally to 4.5 million metric tons (MT). Total supply is expected to decrease slightly due to lower carry-in stocks and production. Although exports are forecast to decrease, domestic use is expected to remain unchanged. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to historically low levels for most crops.

"Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for lentils, dry beans, mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and chickpeas and decrease for dry peas. The main factors to watch are weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the seeding, growing and harvest periods in Canada. Other factors to watch are ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in major producing regions, especially India, United States, European Union, Turkey and Australia," Morgan said.

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