Few Surprises in Seeding Intentions

VANCOUVER - Apr 21/08 - SNS -- Few surprises were contained in this year's seeding intentiosn estimates for specialty crops from Statistics Canada, with the numbers mirroring trade expectations of little movement in total land in the sector.

Canadian specialty crop producers intend to seed around 6.733 million acres of specialty crops, down from 6.9 million acres last year and well off the previous five-year average area of 7.042 million acres. Canadian seedings peaked at 7.786 million acres in 2004.

Provincial level data published by Statistics Canada's points to modest increases in lentil and field pea seedings; a 15% jump in mustard seed plantings; and declines in dry edible beans, chickpeas, canaryseed, and sunflower.

Easing interest in specialty crops was part of a general shift back into wheat in western Canada. Winter wheat area was already up roughly 1.1 million acres from last year at an estimated 2.93 million; while farmers say they also plan to boost spring wheat area 1.37 million acres to 16.584 million and durum seedings from 4.82 to 5.9 million acres.

They are also paying for it with a solid 11% drop in summerfallow area to a recent low of 6.85 million acres and reductions in land in barley and oats. Barley area could be down 1.5 million acres from last year at an intended 9.33 million acres; while oat seedings could be down almost one million acres to 4.485 million.

Though establishing a new record, intended acreage for canola is only up 68,000 acres from last year at an potential 14.8 million, while flaxseed plantings could rise 165,000 acres to 1.47 million and soybeans advance 70,000 to 2.985 million acres.

Basing its estimates on a computer assisted telephone survey of 16,000 farmers between March 20 and 31. Statistics Canada notes that over time there has been a five to 10% variation between seeding intentions and actual area for major crops and between a 10% a 25% variation for specialty crops.

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