Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 14/08 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

The BP opened higher at 1.9768 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.9790 after higher than expected Producer Prices pushed inflation up +0.9% m/m, +6.2% y/y, limiting any immediate rate cut proposals by the MPC. A better than expected increase in the U.S. Retail Sales boosted the DX and sent the BP to a mid-day Lo of 1.9729, before

The DX opened lower at 71.76 and rose to a morning Hi of 72.00 after a higher than expected Retail Sales report. Unfortunately, most of the increase was attributed to higher retail gasoline sales. An increase in Business Inventories of +0.6% shows slowing sales, which reflects the economic outlook. While the Dollar was a topic of discussion at the G-7 meeting, lack of decisive action reflects more of 'jawboning' than any type of 'intervention'. Prices were under pressure from lower equities and higher oil prices as we begin the afternoon session.

The CD opened  'flat' at .9765, slid to a morning Lo of .9762 and bounced to a morning Hi of .9813 on higher commodity prices and a bounce in U.S. Retail Sales. Prices slid to a mid-day Lo of .9790 as we begin the afternoon session.

The EC opened higher at 1.5811 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.5825 after a higher than expected Industrial Production report of +0.3% vs expected +0.2% kept inflation concerns on the front burner and rate cuts on the back burner. Prices drifted to 1.5786, along with weaker equity prices,  as we enter the afternoon session.

The JY opened higher at .9980 as weaker foreign equity markets saw carry-traders taking profit/risk off the table and cover JY short positions, driving the price to a morning Hi of .9980, before sliding to a morning Lo of .9940 on continued weakness in equities.

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak.com

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