Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 14/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

I know with the way the weather is you might not believe it, but summer is coming! The summer driving season is ahead, the economy is slowing down and we have record gas and diesel prices across the nation. Meanwhile airlines are going out of business at an alarming rate. What else could go wrong?

Ok, I am glad you asked. A pipeline leak that shut down up to 1.1 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico oil supplies to the US. Bloomberg News reported that the Capline system was closed April 11 after a technician discovered a leak near Obion, Tennessee, about 190 miles west of Nashville. And to add more grief, Bloomberg also reports that Petroleos Mexicanos, the third-largest supplier of crude to the US closed two oil-export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico. Well look at the bright side, at least it wasn't fog this time.

The bottom line on the pipeline is that if it is down for a long time we will have problems. Repairs are already underway and based on the market reaction, it is clear the trade doesn't expect the problem to be long-lasting.  And because the demand for crude in the US is so poor right now, there is already plenty of crude to go around.   Refineries that are fed through the pipeline are BP's 420,000 barrel a day Whiting, Indiana refinery (the first in the nation), Marathon's 239,000 barrel a day faculty in Kentucky.

Oil of course will once again focus on the fate of the dollar. The G7 ministers met over the weekend and the dollar seemed to like what they did not say. What they did say was  they did not want excessive currency fluctuations. What is excessive we do not know but as long as the dollar rallied the implication was clear to traders. The dollar has fallen too far and too fast for the comfort of the G7. What they do about it is open to endless debate.

Global warming alarmists are  also worried about the cost of food! Looks like bio-fuels are more expensive than the global warming folks thought. That's what happens when you compete with food stocks. Gets expensive quick.

Don't Forget to check me  out on  the Fox Business Network! Also call to get signed up for the Phil Flynn Energy Blast! Just call me at 800-935-6487   email me at pflynn@alaron.com  to open your account!  

Stopped on short  May crude from apprx 11180 at apprx  11105! Sell June crude at 11230 - stop 11300.

Sell May RBOB at  28700 -  stop 28850.

Buy May heating oil at 31070 -  stop 29710.

Buy May natural gas at 940 -  stop 930.

Have a GREAT day!

Phil Flynn

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

pflynn@alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.