Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Apr 10/08 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

The DX opened lower at 71.82 and slid to a morning Lo of 71.77, before a better than expected Jobless Claims report showing 53,000 less unemployed vs.exp.-22,000, helped overcome an increase in the Trade Deficit. Prices bounced to a morning Hi of 72.45 as lower oil prices, higher equities and some DX   short-covering ahead of the G-7 meeting starting on Friday support the move.Prices rose to a daily Hi of 72.49, before drifting lower towards the close to end the session at 72.42, up 30 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. We will see if the short-covering draws some 'bottom-feeders' into the tank, looking for some positive 'remarks' on the Dollar. Shorts should tighten 'stops' or buy 'calls' to reduce exposure.A higher open should find Resistance at 72.71 and 73.00, while an open below 72.19 may find Support at 71.90 and 71.38.

The JY opened higher at 1.0011and rose to a   morning Hi of 1.0018 as weaker equity markets in Asia and Europe saw carry-traders taking profit/risk off the table and 'cover' short JY positions. Prices retraced to a  mid-day Lo of .9832, before bouncing into the close of .9849, down 23 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Traders adjusted 'positions' ahead of the G-7 and may sit back ahead of any 'announcements', which may leak out late Friday afternoon. A lower open may find Support at .9776 and .9749, while an open above .9905 should find Resistance at .9977 and 1.0106.

The BP opened higher at 1.9710 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.9755 after comments from ECB President Trichet suggested the global financial-market crisis may drag on longer than expected sent the EC lower. A rebound in the DX sent the BP  lower along with most other major foreign currency markets. Prices  retraced to a  daily Lo of  1.9609, before bouncing to a close of 1.9624, down 27 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Traders will play off the DX news. If 'inflation' persists, another rate cut may be on hold, keeping the attractive 5.00% yield available for s/t carry-traders.A lower open may find Support at 1.9577 and 1.9530, while an open above 1.9656 should find Resistance at 1.9703 and 1.9782.

The CD opened higher at .9803 and rose to a morning Hi of .9828 after a better than expected increase in Exports, up +3.8%. Prices retraced to a morning Lo of .9767, before rebounding along with the DX to a mid-day Hi of .9827. While short-covering in the DX helped the North American 'pair', lower energy/metals prices weighed on the move.Prices drifted lower into the close and ended the session at .9817, up 18 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Playing off the DX for direction. A confirmed U.S. recession leads to further weakness, unless the DX finds a quick 'bottom'. A higher open should find Resistance at .9838 and .9859, while an open below .9804 may find Support at .9783 and .9749.

The EC opened higher at 1.5831and rose to morning Hi of 1.5840 as the ECB left s/t interest 'unchanged' at 4.00%. Concerns over the extent of the global financial crisis by ECB President Trichet sent a 'negative' message to traders, as they 'sold-the-fact' and booked profits ahead of Friday's start of the G-7 conference in Washington D.C. Prices slid to a mid-day Lo of 1.5677 and ended te session at 1.5697, down 80 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'topping' momentum indicators. Traders looking to 'rotate' out of DX will buy EC. Watch the DX. A lower open may find Support at 1.5629 and 1.5561, while an open above 1.5784 should find Resistance at 1.5816 and 1.5935.

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak.com

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