Few Changes in Field Peas

VANCOUVER - Apr 4/08 - SNS -- European feed pea markets finished weekly trading on an easier noter against dropping grower bids in France and weaker inter-dealer markets in Belgium and Holland.

International feed ingredient markets were on a rollercoaster ride during the week, with markets surprised by the contents of the March 31 USDA seeding intentions report, with markets taking nearly two full days to sort out rapid changes in speculative positions and find a temporary equilibrium between corn and soybean values.

Alaron Trading Corporation's Tim Hannagan stressed, "The smoke has cleared from the long awaited March 31st planted acreage report and all eyes are on weather and its impact on planting. Early emergence and finally the key growing season. The projected 86.014 million acres to be planted is 7.5 million acres below last year. The leaves little room for error in the growing season.

"Consider this: If we plant 86 million acres with last year's 151 bushels per acre yield, our current 2008 ending stocks of 1.4 billion bushels will drop below 300 million bushels with our current demand pace. Needless to say, we need perfect weather across the entire grain belt in hopes of 154 or 156 bushels per acre to insure ending stocks; hover closer to the 800 million bushels to 1 billion bushels ending stocks number for 2009. This looks to be a tough task with our current La-Nina weather pattern that currently has the western grain belt too dry with June to August forecasts for drier conditions across the Midwest.

"The National Weather Service currently has 47% of the U.S. suffering from moisture deficits. Most of those areas are Iowa (west and south) to Texas. Southern Illinois, Indiana, all of Ohio and our southern delta states are receiving too much rain. Wrist.com the weather site sees near record rains the last two days with more on April 11 and 12 and potentially a larger rain event on 14 and 15.

"If this forecast hold true, we will have no field work or planting before April 18th. I am sure those who intend to plant will -- but we could end up having 75% of our corn planted in the last 25% of the preferred panting window. This is leaving it to hit key yield time, when a third of its total growing cycle moisture is needed for good yields in July."

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