As oil has become a safe haven from economic uncertainty this jobs report could be the most important jobs report the oil market has ever seen. If the employment -  or unemployment report if you please -  falls out of the comfort zone of expectations, we could see the prospects for another big move in oil. And depending which side of the comfort zone it is will determine whether oil targets $120 or back down into the seventies.

 

You must remember that bad is good and good is bad. If the jobs creation is real bad then that will be good for the oil bulls. Good as in bullish. How bullish? Well if the number shows a loss of more than 80,000 jobs oil should test $120 in a very short period of time.  Yet on the other hand if we get a surprise on the upside, say an increase of 50,000 plus or more, look for oil to see the low eighties in the same time period. Of course with Bleak Ben Bernanke the market is leaning towards a bleak number so there will be a more severe reaction if the market is indeed a stronger than expected number.

 

In Hartford, Hereford and Hampshire hurricanes hardly ever happen. Yet with global warming, weren't all bets   supposed to be off? In the days after the record hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico with  Hurricane Katrina and Rita,  the global warming folks said it was  unmistakable evidence of a global warming Armageddon that was brought to us by those evils Americans that have the gall to be rich and successful and drive cool cars and gas guzzling SUV's.  Many said that  active hurricane season  was proof positive that global warming had created a situation where every  hurricane season would be longer and more violent than ever before. The media  ate it up. Hurricanes and the end of world make great television.  Hurricane forecasters became  rock stars. Well almost. And the  more hurricanes they predicted the more attention they got. Oil traders and gas traders pumped up the market as we waited for the next hurricane that would rip the oil rigs to smithereens and wipe out refinery row. Last year at this time, when all the hurricane forecasts came out with their expectations,  there was media frenzy.

The markets got caught up in all the excitement and despite the fact there were some major hurricanes, none of them really had the doomsday impact that was predicted.

 

So yesterday when the most famous group of hurricane forecasters made their predictions it almost went unnoticed by the market.

Reuters news reported that, “Noted US hurricane forecaster expects busy season expects an above average Atlantic hurricane season and may raise its prediction of 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes when it updates its outlook next week, the teams founder Bill Gray said on Wednesday. La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for Hurricane activity.�

Yet after the missed forecast last year is anyone listening? We'll wait to see if that rain falls anywhere other than Spain.

 

Now more than ever it is important to stay in touch with me for up to the minute trade recommendations. It is getting harder to just give trade recommendations on line when I have no idea when you are reading this. So please remember to call me for the latest updates. Call 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com to open your account. Check out the Fox Business Network and sign up for a free trial of Alaronenergies. Just call Phil Flynn at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com  to open your trading account.  

Sell May crude at 10770 -  stop 10850.

 

Sell May RBOB at 27850 - stop 28000.

 

Sell May heating oil at  31000 -  stop 31500.

 

We're long  May natural gas  from apprx 940 - stop 933.

 

Have a GREAT day and weekend! A note from the editor...Happy Birthday Phil!!!