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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Apr 3/08 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. The corn market rallied to new highs on Wednesday as corn prices flirted with the $6 level as traders pointed to adverse fund conditions and fund buying coming back into the grain markets. The May, July, and December all closed up at least 10 cents with the July and December closing over $6.00. Traders pointed to rain in the south as delaying plantings at a time when corn acres are estimated to already be low and ending stocks were lower than expected. Volume was moderate/heavy as we almost approached 300,000 again and funds were net buyers of 7,000 contracts. Weather forecasters are predicting rain down in the southern areas again this weekend and next week when farmers need the fields to dry out so they can get corn planted. It also remains cooler than normal in the rest of the Midwest at a time when the ground needs to start to warm up. Traders also pointed to technical buying yesterday and a general lack of sell orders for most of the day. Overnight the corn market was pretty quiet, but it did close higher as the prospects of the wet weather delaying plantings. The July and December contracts closed 1-2 higher near the highs for the night after the corn was lower around 10:30-11 last night. Combined weekly export sales this morning were above expectations. Analysts estimated export sales of 550,000 to 750,000 and actual combined sales were 945,000. This number will be supportive to the corn market but will be quickly forgotten after the opening as traders will continue to concentrate on the weather and the forecast for rains. The forecast this morning has the showers moving south out of the heart of the Midwest and down into the Ohio River Valley which is trying to plant corn right now and doesn't need anymore rain. The strike in Argentina has been put on hold for 30 days while the two sides talk about reducing the export tariff's, but now there is talk that Brazil could have problems as dock workers have started a work slow down and are talking about striking. Corn should open higher this morning in-line with overnight closing and then look for direction. Outside markets are a little lower and the US$ is a little stronger this morning. Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCK8 597^4 1^6 598^6 593^4 ZCN8 611^2 2^0 612^0 606^4 ZCU8 610^0 2^2 611^0 605^6 ZCZ8 604^4 1^4 606^0 600^4 ZCH9 612^0 3^4 612^0 606^6 Early Opening Calls: 1-2 cents better Top News **USDA Corn 07/08 Export Sales Net: 704,400 mt; 08/09 Net: 241,300 mt; expected 600-800k mt -- Apr 15 is deadline to submit bids in a 100,000 mt Barley tender floated by Jordan. Delivery for 50k mt is expected in FH May & the balance in LH May -- Port authorities at Brazil's Paranagua port say dock workers began a strike on Wednesday, noting trucks ready to dump loads were backing up outside the port area. -- Analyst forecast Ukraine's exports of grain in March totaled 773,600 mt vs. Feb.'s 176,084 mt. Its March break down included 349,500 mt of Corn, 136,900 mt of Wheat & 241,400 mt of Barley, acc. to UkAgro -- CME Group announced it will offer electronically traded options on futures contracts in Corn, Soybeans, Soymeal, Soyoil, Wheat, Oats, & Rough Rice side by side during day-time open outcry trading hours beginning April 14, 2008. -- Dalian Sept Corn futures were 2 lower at 1,773 Yuan/mt, while the rest of the complex was mostly unchanged -- Globex Corn Vol: 242,348; Pit Vol.: 36,800; Open Interest change: +16,296 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Above Precip. The Corn Belt will see showers and thunderstorms moving west to east today and Friday. Saturday into Monday looks dry. Temps normal to below. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.73 at $104.10; Gold & Silver: +0.7 at $895.5 & -0.097 at $17.075; US $ is better vs. Euro & is slightly better vs. Yen Cash Markets -- CIF Corn off 3 . Apr. +37 to +42, May +40 to +44, June +35 to +36, July +38 to +40, Oct. +40 to +45, Nov. +40 to +44, Dec. +43 to +48 TREND: Wheat bounced off the oversold conditions and maybe off the talk of insurance adjusters looking at hard wheat acres---do not think this follows through very far already up into resistance in the Jly contract at 9.50-9.60. Corn continues to gain but took a back seat to short covering today. Still see CK going to 6.20-6.30. There was a marked increase in farmer selling in old crop corn today that may have been part of the reluctance to rally much more than 10 cents. $6.00 is a magic number. If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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