Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Mar 17/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 48.8 millions bushels of corn was inspected for near term export up from 47.8 the week prior; and 39.4 a year ago.   Inspections are up 210 m.b. on the export year.   It is a good demand signal.   As expected, the Bear Stearns investment house collapse spilled over into Monday pulling corn and beans down their daily limits as index funds fearful of further economic bad news took money out and brought it closer to their vest.   We saw selling across the board with heavy losses in sugar, coffee, cocoa, crude oil and stock indexes.   If Tuesday sees more fund liquidation on economic fears not directly related to agricultural supply, demand fundamentals then further grain losses would be imminent as liquidation is liquidation.   Let us be ready for another mind set.   One that brings grain trading back to its own long term psychology.   If today's liquidation satisfies the funds then tomorrow low could hold as the low for the week and maybe the month.   Reasons:   Those who sold short last Thursday's contract high corn prices on December at 5.90 and November beans at 13.50 would have significant profit on limit down corn and beans through today.   A lower open Tuesday would then have them begin short covering or profit taking ahead of our three day holiday as markets are closed Friday for Good Friday.   Shorts will not want to leave those profits out there for the long holiday especially knowing that on return next Monday they will see only 5 trading days before the march 31st planted acreage report which is feared to potentially be the most bullish planting report in history.   Next week is for positioning ahead of the report and short the market is the last thing to do ahead of it.   Something to think about:   Next support for May corn is 5.28 and December support at 5.40.   First thing to do Tuesday before grains open is to take the pulse of outside markets to determine grains fate.   If crude is off 4 or 5 dollars again and stock indexes sharply lower feed grains could lack limit again.   If there are only moderately off then a lower grain open could lead to short covering.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 23.9 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export off from 32.3 the week prior but over a year ago of 20.3.   The lower number is consistent with South America over taking us as the primary port of origin for beans seasonally through April.   May support lies at 12.40 and November at today's close of 12.29 then 11.60.   Refer to corn commentary for possible bean trading psychology as it is one in the same.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 15.6 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export.   down from 20.2 the week prior and about equal a year ago of 14 m.b.   It is slightly negative but to have 15.6 inspected off 60  year low ending stocks is not all bad either.   We came into today with July K.C. support at 11.50.   A close under here and next support is 11.20.   That 11.25 is a major support line.   July C.B.T. support is 10.80 then 10.25.

End.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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