Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Mar 4/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 47 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export vs the week prior of 49.3- and a year ago of 57.5.   Year to date inspections are 1.272 b.b. vs 1 b.b. a year ago.   It is a decent demand number and in the big picture it iwll add to a pace greater than current USDA export projections.   Asian markets continue to be the key driving demand.   China's historic winter storm damaged up to half their high protein rapeseed crop.     Nearly half of their prime growing province is now being hit by extremely dry conditions leading their agricultural minister to talk of increased world imports of grains to meet expanding demand and crop problems and to try to build reserves.   All this is important as the USDA here has yet to add exports of U.S. grain due to their weather prob lems and excellarated buying.   This sets us up eventually fora lower ending stocks here, possibly on the March 11th.   USDA monthly crop report if the USDA plays catch up.   We got our Monday rally and Tuesday break on profit taking as expected.   We should finish the week strong as traders get positioned ahead of next tuesday report.   May corn has support at 5.44 and December new crop at 5.56.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 32.5 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export.   They were up from 24.8 the week prior and 27 a year ago.   Needless to say, it is a strong near term demand signal.   Though China continues buying beans to crush and sue the soymeal to blend with corn for their expanding feed lot populations of hogs and chickens.   It is the soy oil that leads the way as they leave the past of cooking with water to cooking with high protein vegetable oils like soy oil and palm oi.   Palm and soy oil hit new contract highs Monday pulling beans and meal along as expected before traders fat with profit went to the bank Tuesday selling longs and packeting cash.   We initially opened lower today only to find buyers pulling beans up after the first hour.    The outstide markets like crude oil and metals which were up collapsed pulling beans and corn with it, probably a little more than expected.   Tomorrow leaves grains to look mainly to outside markets for the daily trend as our next grain weekly report is Thursday's weekly export sales report.   We look for a firm finish to the week ahead of the March 11th USDA crop report.   May beans have support at 15.25 today then 14.70.   November had first support today at 14.25 then 13.90.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 16.2 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 19 the week prior and a year ago.   It is off a little, but any amount when we are at 60 year low inventory is probably at least friendly from a demand view point.   Our business on U.S. ports seems to have gone from a primary port for world importers to a second or third port as some foreign exporters are under bidding.   this will turn around come mid-April as foreign importers start forward contracting for June on out delivery of our winter wheat crop which breaks dormancy soon.   Wxrisk.com sees the winter wheat states as fairly dry from Wednesday to next tuesday before any crop soil needed rain occures.   We need to watch moisture through Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado to Kansas.   As weather goes there, so goes the price of wheat.   Australia's Ag people are talking of their big come back to produce 25 m.m.t. or more this year after the two procedding drought years yielded less than 13 m.mt. but hope does not work, rain does.   They are  optomistic that recent rains are a sign the drought is over.   They begin planting in May.   The importance here is they and Canada are the most competitive world wheat exporters to the U.S. May C.B.T. wheat had support today at 10.75.   a close under here and 10.25 is next.

End.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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