Old Acreage Forecasts Unnervingly Low

VANCOUVER - Feb 15/08 - SNS -- It is hard appreciate how much and how rapidly agriculture has changed until you look back at what people were forecasting in 2005. Three years ago, Iowa State University's Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute thought the world would harvest 145.5 million hectares of corn this year and that by 2014, area would slip slightly to 145 million.

Today, they expect the world to plant 156 million hectares of corn every year between now and 2016. Ethanol demand is behind the forecast jump in corn area. This will also affect other feed grains, with world barley area expected to average one million hectares more per year than people were thinking just three years ago.

On the other hand, world sorghum area is now expected to be three million hectares per year lower. Rising biodiesel demand will also affect world oilseed production patterns. World rapeseed area is expected to be over three million hectares more than we thought in 2005; while soybean area forecasts are roughly similar; and there is less optimism about sunflower area prospects.

Accommodating biofuel demand means the percentage of arable land in the world being farmed needs to rise from around 69% today to 70% by 2011 and to 71% by 2016. Combining the FAPRI forecasts with data from the FAO, it would appear the world will need to plant crops on another 34 million hectares or 84 million acres of land within eight years. That raw demand for more land is on top of the push and pull for land resources between commodities.

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