Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Feb 15/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 932 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week off 9% from the week prior but these were still very good demand numbers as 70% of our exportable feed grains go to Asian markets.   They werre closed last week for their Lunar New Year Holiday.   We still saw robust demand from other world importers.   Thursday's friendly review of the exports sales report took a back seat to outside market influences.   The end of the Asian New Year closings brought higher cash and futures prices on the Chinese Dalian Exchange as well as new highs for palm oi.   This pulled the U.S. Grains up along with it.   Additionally, advances in crude oil and other energies and a lower dollar index all helped to hold big gains Thursday.   The question to be answered is, did we see the bottom of our February correction, before what we believe will be a handsome rally in March off the March 11 USDA crop report when ending stocks here could be adjusted lower as South American crop production finally gets adjusted and our long awaited March 31 planted acreage report.   this is where most believe we can not see enough acres to be planted on all our crops to satisfy record demand.   January saw fairly good price corrections off record high price rallies yet our February has brought only a small price correction.   We are certainly poised for further profit taking if the large trading funds see fit to further take bonuses by taking profits but its also possible there simply too bullish for March report possibilities that recent corrections are enough.   Watch out for next Friday as March grain options expire and traditionally we dip just ahead of expiration.   As bullish as I am for March, if we have another price break to new lows on the month buy the new crop december corn as close to our 5.02 support as you can, then sell the July 4.70 puts and pull in premium as they expirt in late June when corn will have its weather premium high built in as we will be at key pollination stage.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.