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Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Feb 6/08 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. The corn market closed slightly lower, mixed yesterday after trading in a pretty tight range all day. The March contract closed down 1 ¼ and the December closed down ½. With very little new news out on the corn market, it has been looking at the other markets for direction. Considering what the outside markets did yesterday, gold down almost $20, Dow down 350pts, crude down over $2.00, corn holding steady was impressive. Wheat remains the wild/scary market with MN wheat trading as much as $1.50 over the limit yesterday and the Chicago and KC wheat markets in March closing limit up. As one veteran trader said yesterday, trying to pick a top in the wheat market is going to give you an education you would probably rather not have. Volume was light/moderate with funds selling 1,000+ contracts on the day. Corn still has excellent support below the market as was evidenced yesterday trying to give back the gains on Monday, but unable to maintain any attempt to sell the market. Overnight, the corn market was higher on the back of the wheat market and higher outside markets overnight. With the release of Friday’s USDA supply/demand report, traders will start to position themselves ahead of the report as several analysts expect the USDA to trim several million bu from the gov’t ending stocks for 2007/08. Exports remain very strong and the market will await the release of the weekly export sales tomorrow morning. The weather in Argentina remains a non-story with hot weather forecast for this week, but cooler/wetter weather forecast for next week. The crop development in Argentina remains pretty good, but nothing like the record yields/production many hoped to have when they started planting. The USDA projected 2008 corn plantings at 88 mil acres, but as we know, this is just a guess because they don’t talk to any farmers or do any type of survey, they just use annual fiscal budgeting. The corn market was higher overnight and we should open in line with the night closes and then look for direction. The wheat market front months are all limit up again overnight and that should lend support to the other grain markets and the outside markets are also higher. Globex Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCH8 513^2 4^0 516^0 509^4 ZCK8 525^4 3^6 528^0 521^2 ZCN8 534^0 1^0 538^4 532^4 ZCU8 535^4 3^2 536^0 532^0 ZCZ8 535^0 2^4 537^0 532^6 Early Opening Calls: 2-4 cents better Top News -- 48,000 mt of US or S American Corn sought in tender by Israeli group for delivery between mid May & early June -- Opposition was expressed by Nat'l Grain & Feed group to the CFTC about the CFTC's proposal to exempt index & pension fund spec positions under "risk-management exemption" rule. The grain group says the new rules would amplify the current problem of convergence at futures expiration & hurt traditional hedgers ability to finance margin calls on hedges that are part of loan covenants. -- Egypt's GASC on Wednesday buys total of 150,000 mt of Wheat. 95,000 mt were of Russian origin, 30,000 mt were from Kazakh & 25,000 mt were US Soft Red Wheat. Wheat was priced in Egyptian pounds. -- Dalian, China's New Year holiday Feb 6 - 12, Dalian Corn & Soybean futures will resume trade on Feb 13th -- Globex Corn Vol: 160,620; Pit Vol.: 46,511; Open Interest change: +13,447 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Above Normal Precip East, Below West. The Corn Belt will see rain and snow today. Thursday looks dry. Friday into Sunday will see snow flurries. Temps will fall to below normal by late in the weekend. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.30 at $88.71; Gold & Silver: +10.9 at $897.8 & +0.206 at $16.553; US $ is down slightly vs. Yen and is up slightly vs. Euro Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady to off 6. Feb. +34 to +37, Mar. +38 to +42, Apr. +36 to +40, May +40 to +43, June +40 to +42, July +40 to +44, Oct. +41 to +46, Nov. +41 to +48. TREND: It would be nice if I could say something smart about wheat---but 170 over limit. Best to say nothing. It says it all for itself. Other wheat markets certainly tagged along and new crop spring wheat was also able to keep up in spite of ability to add acres in the spring planting season. Corn and beans were not able to hold together or the rallies. Felt several times today that they might get the same exuberance as wheat. These markets performed quite well considering the weakness in the metals and energy markets. Nothing changes with a high probability that we extend the gains and make new highs in corn in this rally. If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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