Alaron Energy Comment

CHICAGO - Feb 4/08 - SNS -- Following is the energy futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Ground Hogwash! Depending on whom you believe either the groundhog did or did not see his shadow. You may be shocked to find this out but there are actually two ground hogs! What an outrage! I feel duped! And what is worse they have two distinctly different views on whether or not we will have an early spring. According to the witnesses at the scene it was reported that one ground hog saw his shadow and the other one did not! Now if you can't depend on grounds hogs and you can't count on the Patriots winning the Super bowel what can you count on? So now we will just to have top wait to find out whether or not we will have an early spring. What if I don't want to wait? �

�I guess when you think about it those ground hogs might as well be predicting how the slowdown in the economy might affect the price of oil. When oil surged towards $100 a barrel there was a feeling on invincibility by the oil bulls. No prediction seemed to high and the bulls were going bull crazy. There were predictions of $120 a barrel oil and $150 a barrel oil and even as high as $200. Those wild bulls caught up in their bullish blindness seemed to forget the guiding principle that drove oil for years in the first place and that was my friend strong and steady US economic growth.

Yes US growth! Long before China was the darling of the oil bulls the bull market in oil was started its rally with strong unprecedented growth in the US. Year after year of strong growth in the US had fed a housing boom the likes of which the country had ever seen before. As we built those houses and condo's and what have you we filled them up with goods made in China.

� Even when many doubted that China could grow at all China got addicted to low energy and commodity prices and became a exporting machine. The Majority of their goods went to a commodity hungry USA that sucked up China's cheap goods like water.

China then got so big it was said that China no longer needed the US and thedir consumers. It was said that their economy had decoupled from the US and thatr their demand for oil would still grow even if the US slowed.

Yet as oil surged to $100 a barrel I was warning that the move to that level was not sustainable. And we are seeing evidence that the real decoupling in oil is away from the strength in gold and other save haven commodity investments.

Friday the energy market got hammered as the bad jobs number in the Montly unemployment report shows that the US economy more than likely is moving in the wrong direction. The boasts of the bulls that thought the price of oil was immune to weakness in the world economy are being proven wrong.

And in China, Business week says that the government is looking at the slowdown in the US as an opportunity In fact they say China , some people might be looking forward to a slowdown so they can slowdown China' too hot inflation riddled � economy.

Don't forget to call for your free trial to Alaronenergies and call me for the Phil Flynn Energy Blast! Call 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com �

�Short March crude from apprx 9090! Lower stop to 9050!!

Short March RBOB from apprx 23300 lower stop 23100

Buy March Heating oil 24200 stop 23900

Short March natural gas from apprx 812 lower stop to 798!!!

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