Canadian Over Production Unlikely in 2008

VANCOUVER - Jan 19/08 - SNS -- Canadian pulse acreage is expected to record a general increase this year, despite record prices available to growers for canola, durum and other competing grains. Part of the increase in Canadian area will come from further declines in the amount of land devoted to summerfallow.

In background notes for a presentation to this year's Saskatchewan Pulse Growers annual convention in Saskatoon, STAT's Brian Clancey noted land in summerfallow in western Canada dropped from 19.37 million acres in 1991 to 14.965 million by 1999 and just over 8.9 million acres in 2003 and 2004. Summerfallow rebounded to 10.16 million acres in 2005 and 10.71 million in 2006.

Over production of all crops around the world was driving agricultural commodity prices to unprofitable levels for all field crop producers and they responded by taking land out of production. Everything changed by the spring of 2007 and land in summerfallow in western Canada sank back to just over 8 million acres. As per acre incomes rise, more land should come out of summerfallow. But, pulse area will not hold steady or increase unless prospective returns are competitive with grains and oilseeds. This is more or less the case for the coming year.

Total land in pulses in Canada is expected to advance from 5.8 million acres in 2007 to almost 6.14 million acres this year; while total area in specialty crops jumps from 6.89 to 7.47 million acres. Both numbers are short of their records. The record pulse area was 6.72 million acres in 2001; while the record specialty crop area for Canada was 7.786 million acres in 2004.

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