Alaron Currency Comment

CHICAGO - Jan 17/08 - SNS -- Following is the currency futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

The BP opened higher at 1.9649 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.9625 after a better than expected U.S. Jobless Claims report helped the DX off morning  lows and ahead of Fed Chrm. Bernanke's testimony in fromt of Congress. Prices rebounded to a morning Hi of 1.9750, helped by comments from BoE Deputy Gov. Grieve, that anticipation of 50bp rate cuts were 'over-done'.Prices drifted lower towards the close as the 'green-back' bounced higher, sending the BP to a close of 1.9663, up 69 tics.  The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'improving' momentum indicators. Today's 'short-covering' will need further followthru buying to fight off the 'bears'. A lower open may find Support at 1.9609 and 1.9554, while an open above 1.9679 should find Resistance at 1.9734 and 1.9804.

The DX opened the day  lower at 76.17 and slid to a morning Lo  of 76.08, before a better than expected Jobless Claims showing a decrease of 21,000 boosted prices to a morning Hi of 76.32. Prices retraced to a morning Lo of 76.08 as Fed Chrm.Bernanke commented on the 'slowing' economy, before instilling  the need for an  'economic stimulus' to help the economy off   the  Recessionary spiral. Prices bounced higher into the close, hitting an 'intra-day' Hi of 76.34, before ending the session at 76.30, down 6 tics.  The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators.  We will see if Congress can 'stimulate' the  slowing economy before it needs CPR. A lower open may find Support at 76.05 and 75.80, while an open above 76.33 should find Resistance at 76.58 and 76.86.  

The CD opened higher at .9779 and rose to a morning Hi at our Pivot level of .9788, before retracing to a mid-day LO of .9700 as the lower U.S.equity markets and onset of a 'recession' dim the outlook for export revenues. Prices rebounded towards the close to end the day at .9707, down 66 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'weak-oversold' momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at .9676 and .9646, while an open above .9731 should find Resistance at .9761 and .9816.

The EC opened higher at 1.4685 and  slid to a morning Lo of   1.4650 as the DX benefitted fromt he Jobless Claims, before rebounding to a mid-day Hi of 1.4710. Prices drifted lower as the DX tightened its losses towards the close, ending the day at 1.4667, up 13 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. A ECB more concerned w/ 'inflation' vs. a U.S. Fed. concerned w/ 'recession' should see higher EC prices. A lower open may find Support at 1.4641 and 1.4616, while an open above 1.4676 should find Resistance at 1.4701 and 1.4736.

The JY opened higher at .9411 as carry-traders covered short positions ahead of   Chrm. Bernanke's testimony and retraced to a morning Lo of .9342, as recessionary fears continue to weigh on exports at these 'escalated' levels. Prices followed the DX higher towards the close to end the session at .9392, up 5 tics.  The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators. Longs  need to tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure at these levels. A higher open should find Resistance at .9431 and .9469, while  an open below .9386 may find Support at .9348 and .9393.  

Bob Kozak

Alaron Research Team

800.462.4691

bkozak.com

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