Alaron Grains and Oilseeds Comment

CHICAGO - Jan 15/08 - SNS -- Following is the grain and oilseed futures comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 50.5 million bushels of corn was inspected by the USDA for near term shipment, up from 32.4 the week prior.   This is over our four week average of 41 and a year ago 39 m.b. year to date inspections are 906 m.b. vs. 799 a year ago.   The grain marketing year for corn and beans is from September 1st to Sept 1st the following year.   Needless to say, rocketing prices still have foreign importers implying corn prices are still undervalued.   Limit up 20 cent trade Friday and Monday before closing, up 17 on Monday left us set for a lower open Tuesday; and two sided trade on position evening.   Plenty of demand surfacing this week as well as this Thursday's weekly export sales report so show a big jump in exports after last Tuesday saw 635 t.m.t. sold to three separate Asian countries.   Those sales show up on this week's reports.   The only thing suggesting some lower prices yet is the gap on the charts left from Friday's high to Monday's low.   The bottom of the gap is 4.96.   Anything close to 5.00 on corn basis march is a buy with stops under 4.96.   Major support is 4.80.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 21.8 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, down from 27 the week prior.   This is a four week average and under a year ago of 29.4 m.b. another of many recent signs of a seasonal slow down in demand as primary world buyer China shifts attention to South America.   Long term demand remains at record levels but through Brazil's harvest into March we have to share business.   The weather in Brazil remains good with timely rains but Argentina continues to fall short on rain.   Wrist.com sees a a huge heat dome easing into Friday and Saturday.   Though cooler, rain totals appear insufficient long term bullish fundamentals remain.   Beans continue its inflationary run and goal to secure 7 or 8 m.a. more to be planted.   Until funds decide acres are secured we look to hold support.   Current March support lies at 12.80.   A close under here and 12.55 could be seen.

Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 21.3 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export.   Up from 19 the week prior, four week average of 16.5, and a year ago of 16 m.b.   Still a weak number as all the comparisons were weak numbers.   Wheat exchanges remain strong as a lot of small Un.S. business is being done, while Pakistan again is offering to buy 600 t.m.t. on the world market-   if someone comes up with a good price.   additionally, there is some concern the Arctic cold blast to come into the hard red winter wheat states this week end could stress young wheat seedlings lying dormant who lost their recent snow cover.   It is more psychological than anything.   Wheat at this stage is a hardy foe.   A close over 9.25 minor resistance sets up a test of 9.60.   A close over 9.60 and the market will break toward old highs of 10.09.   Support lies at 8.90.   A close under sets up minor stop points at 8.80 then 8.70.   Major support is 8.45.

Tim Hannagan

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

thannagan@alaron.com

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