Record Global Oilseed Harvest

WASHINGTON - Jan 11/08 - SNS -- Global oilseed production for 2007-08 is projected at a record 389.7 million metric tons (MT), down 1.6 million from last month, according to forecast from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Foreign production is projected at 309.7 million MT, down 1.5 million. Global soybean production accounts for most of the change, projected down 1.3 million MT, at 220.3 million MT. Brazil's soybean crop is reduced 1.5 million MT to 60.5 million MT. Harvested area is reduced 0.5 million hectares reflecting recent Brazilian government surveys.

Soybean production for Paraguay is raised 0.5 million MT to a record 7 million MT based on an increase in projected area. Foreign sunflowerseed and cottonseed production are reduced this month. Argentina's sunflowerseed crop is reduced 0.2 million MT due to lower projected area. Dry conditions during the planting season prevented plantings from reaching earlier projections. Other changes include lower cottonseed production estimates for China and Pakistan, and increased prospects for cottonseed production for India.

U.S. oilseed production for 2007-08 is estimated at 80.0 million MT, down 0.1 million MT from last month, and 16.6 million MT below last year's record. Small reductions for soybean and canola production were offset by increases for sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 2.585 billion bushels, down 9 million bushels from last month based on a slightly lower yield. The soybean yield is estimated at 41.2 bushels per acre. Soybean exports and crush projections are unchanged from last month. Soybean stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. If realized, stocks would be at the lowest level since 2003-04. Soybean oil stocks are projected higher this month reflecting increased production due to a higher extraction rate.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2007-08 is projected at a record-high $9.90 to $10.90 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range based on the sharp rise in cash and futures prices in recent weeks. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 45.5 to 49.5 cents per pound compared with 41 to 45 cents last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $335 per short ton compared with $265 to $295 last month.

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