Modest Decline in Soybean Estimate

WASHINGTON - Jan 11/08 - SNS -- Soybean production in 2007 totals 2.59 billion bushels, down slightly from the November forecast and 19% below the record high production of 2006, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) final crop report for 2007.

The final USDA estimate for 2007 is close to trade expectations. Prior to the release of today's report, surveys of traders found they expected output to end up at 2.584 billion bushels, with guesses ranging between 2.562 and 2.614 billion.

The USDA reports the average yield per acre is estimated at 41.2 bushels, 0.1 bushel below the November forecast and 1.5 bushels below last year's yield. Harvested area is down 16% from 2006, to 62.8 million acres.

Yields are down from last year across most of the eastern and northern Corn Belt, most of the Atlantic Coast States, and Tennessee. The biggest declines from last year occurred in Kentucky and Tennessee, down 18 and 21 bushels from 2006, respectively, as hot summer weather combined with very little rain to limit soybean yields. Meanwhile, yields are up from last year across the Great Plains, the Delta States, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. The largest increases from last year are in Mississippi and Texas, where yields increased 14 and 13 bushels, respectively, as timely rains during the season produced new record high yields for both States. Record high yields were also set in Louisiana and South Dakota, and record high yields were tied in Nebraska and Ohio.

The 2007 soybean objective yield survey data indicate that final average pod counts were higher than last year in eight of the eleven objective yield program States. Pod counts were lower than last year in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri.

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