for the World's Agriculture Industry Since 1988 |
![]() | ||
For full site access Lost Password? Customer Center Trade Directory Special Crops Beans Lentils Peas Chickpeas Birdseed Mustard & Other Spices & Herbs Dried Fruit & Nuts Supply-Demand The rest of Agriculture Bio-Energy Commentary Grain Oilseed Livestock Poultry Cotton & Wool Fresh Fruit & Vegetables Dried Fruit & Nuts Dairy Technology General Organic Just for Growers Cash Markets Futures Markets Weather Price Graphs Export Data Supply-Demand Subscribe Today! Privacy Policy Subscriber Agreement Ag Links Affiliates Add Headlines! To your website! |
Linn Group Morning Corn CommentCHICAGO - Jan 2/08 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. The corn market was higher on Monday on light trading from speculators and light fund buying. The grain markets traded an abbreviated session on Monday because of the New Years holiday and many traders had taken the day off. The March contract closed slightly higher, up 3 ½, after early weakness on spillover pressure from the soybean market. Volume was light and funds bot app. 3,000 contracts on the day. Traders said they saw renewed corn/soybean spreading to bring prices back in line after the recent run up in prices in soybeans. Traders also said they saw some outright fund buying in the corn market as there continues to be talk of new investment fund money coming into the grains and rebalancing of money coming out of soybeans, wheat and crude and into corn, KC wheat, and sugar. The USDA released weekly export inspections which was below estimates, but largely ignored by the market. Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday morning because of the holiday on Tuesday. eCBOT was much stronger overnight as China announced new export quotas on top of the previously announced export tariff’s as they continue to try and curb exports to keep prices at home under control. Some flour mills in China have said they will have to break current contracts or they will be exporting flour at a loss. These new export quotas and tariff’s come on the back of the tariff’s announced last week and surprised most exporters. This announcement shows just how worried Chinese officials are about food-flation at home and how they are going to protect their own needs before exporting grain. There will be no grace period and these quotas take effect immediately. So. American weather remains a very important ingredient in the overall grain picture as Argentina rains are still not enough to stop overall net drying, but Brazil is getting very beneficial rains. Crops are far from being in trouble in So. America, but the world is dependent on a good crop from them to help already depleted world stocks and in helping US farmers make decisions on what to plant this spring. Volumes were big last night and some talk this morning about new investment fund money coming into commodities as we see gold and crude oil up strong this morning. The corn market should open in line with last nights close, but be careful if the funds are involved because we can see big swings. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZCH8 461^4 6^0 462^0 456^0 ZCK8 471^6 5^0 472^6 466^6 ZCN8 481^0 4^4 482^4 476^4 ZCU8 478^4 4^2 479^2 474^0 Early Opening Calls: 4-6 higher Top News -- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 90% of the Corn is planted noting some delays due to dry weather. -- Weekly Thursday USDA Export Sales will be released on Friday, Jan. 4th, 2008 due to New Year's Holiday. -- Monday's USDA Weekly Corn Inspections: 38.742 mln bu; expected 43.0 mln bu; prior 48.89 mln -- EIA Weekly Wednesday Petroleum Stocks report will be released a day late on Thursday, January 3rd due to New Year's Holiday. -- EIA Weekly Thursday Natural Gas Storage report will be released a day late on Friday, January 4th due to New Year's Holiday. -- Dalian Corn futures contracts fell in overnight trade. Volume leader May was off -13 and settled at 1,682 Yuan/mt; Sept futures fell -9 to 1,803 Yuan/mt -- eCBOT Corn Vol: 62,794; Pit Vol.: 17,584; Open Interest change: +9,146 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Above Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip. Other than a few light snow flurries the Corn Belt looks dry today into Friday. Saturday and Sunday could see some light showers. Temps above normal. -- Outside markets: Energy Complex +1.77 at $97.77; Gold & Silver: +10.8 at $849.4 & +.159 at $15.08; US $ is down slightly vs. Yen and down sharply vs. Euro Cash Markets -- CIF Corn steady off 2. Dec. +31 to +34, Jan. +33 to +37, Feb. +42 to +44, Mar. +45 to +48, Apr. +39 to +42 May +40 to +45 June +39 to +42 TREND: The corn market continues to walk away from pricing orders. Export trade remains excellent and domestic use is getting a boost from improved ethanol margins. The chart at the right outlines the corn outlook. The move into new highs on the weekly chart came on the Dec expiration into carries to the Mch but we have confirmed this trade over the last three weeks. The gap left will be support on any break. Part of rally can also be garnered from lack of selling going into the Jan crop report with talk of a reduction in the crop forthcoming---in yields in not in a cut in acres? If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations, contact me directly. Jim Riley Linn Group 877-787-6278 jriley@linngroup.com www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
|