Grimes and Plain Weekly Cattle Outlook

CHICAGO - Dec 14/07 - SNS -- Following is a week ending cattle market comment from the University of Missouri - Columbia's Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Beef production for 2007 is now forecast by USDA at 26.45 billion pounds, up 0.7 percent from a year earlier but down 2.4 percent from the annual record high of 27.091 billion pounds in 2002. For 2008, USDA is forecasting beef production at 26.105 billion pounds, down 1.8 percent from 2007.

Beef exports for 2007 are now projected by USDA at 1.436 billion pounds, up 25.4 percent from 2006. The USDA December projection for beef exports are for an increase of 19.1 percent from 2007 at 1.71 billion pounds.

The total beef supply per capita for 2007 is projected to be 65.3 pounds, down 0.4 pound from 2006. The 2008 projected supply of beef per capita at 63.6 pounds is down 1.7 pounds from 2007.

The total red meat and poultry supply for 2007 is projected by USDA at 90.436 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from 2006. The USDA December projection for the total red meat and poultry supply for 2008 is projected at 91.516 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from 2007.

Total red meat and poultry supplies per person in 2007 are projected at 221.1 pounds, down 0.5 pound from 2006. The total red meat and poultry supplies per person for 2008 are projected at 221.1 pounds, the same as 2007.

Feeder cattle prices this week at Oklahoma City were lightly tested and $3-5 per cwt lower than last week. Steer and heifer calves were $5-10 per cwt lower than seven days earlier.

A significant portion of the lower prices at Oklahoma City this week was weather-related with a severe ice storm covering most of the state.

The few prices from the small run at Oklahoma City for medium and large frame Number One steers were: 550-600-pound calves $107-109.75 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $101.50-105 per cwt, 650-700-pound yearlings $107.50 per cwt, and 700-750-pound yearlings $106.50-108.50 per cwt.

Wholesale beef prices were modestly higher this week than seven days earlier. Choice beef Friday morning at $148.39 per cwt was up $1.64 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef at $132.80 per cwt was up $2.14 per cwt from seven days earlier.

The fed cattle market showed good movement this week for negotiated cattle through Thursday. The weighted average live fed cattle price this week through Thursday for the five-market area was $92.60 per cwt, up $0.25 per cwt from a week earlier. The weighted average carcass price for the five-market area through Thursday at $145.60 per cwt was down $0.10 per cwt from seven days earlier.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 652 thousand head, up 1.6 percent from a year earlier.

Beef exports for October were sharply higher than a year earlier with a growth of 36.2 percent from 2006. For January-October, beef exports were up 27.5 percent from a year earlier.

Issued by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain

University of Missouri - Columbia

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. and/or STAT Publishing or its staff and/or management.