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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Dec 5/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.
Jan Soybeans closed 12 ¾ cents higher ending a 2 day slide. Traders say Meal
was the catalyst for the rally and even oil was able to close higher despite
weakness in the Crude oil market. Lately soybean oil’s gains have been
closely tied with gains in crude oil and weakness in the US dollar. Talk
internationally about increased poultry demand especially in Asia as the
Bird Flu scare appears to be subsiding and that can only add to meal demand
as poultry production is likely to increase. Weather remains a concern as
Brazil and Argentina are forecasted for drier weather and if that happens as
beans continue to grow, bean prices will react. CBOT reported Volume for
Beans and products was Soybeans 120,597, Oil 68,475 and Meal 47,370. Funds
were net buyers of an estimated 4,500 Soybeans, 3,000 Meal and 2,000 Oil
Early opening calls are higher. The US dollar is strong this morning up 50
pts. And Crude Oil is up $ 1.20. A report by Barclays Capital Investment
bank says that the biggest gains in commodities next year will be in the
agricultural sector as grain stocks remain low and demand for biofuels and
animal feed will pick up. The Brazil Veg Oil Industry Assoc. issued a
Soybean production estimate for that country of 60.5 mmt vs. a previous
estimate of 60.7mmt. Grain analyst Celeres issued an estimate of 62.3 mmt
vs. their previous estimate of 63.1 mmt. citing delays in planting as the
reason for the drop. Celeres also estimates Brazilian farmers have sold 33%
of new crop vs 27% last year and 31% average. Overnight Chinese Soybeans and
Meal up and Soybean Oil down. Malaysian Palm Oil Futures closed firmer.
Early Opening Calls: 3 to 5 higher.
Top News
-- Chinese grain stats office kept its 2007 Soybean production unchanged at
14.00 mln mt same as its November estimate
-- Dalian Sept Soybean futures rose 21 yuan to 4322 yuan/mt in overnight
trade, soymeal May contract rose also to 3243 yuan/mt up 24 yuan; Soyoil
futures finished lower down 12 yuan to 9378 yuan/mt
-- Malaysian Palm Feb futures $6.28 to $870.35/mt
-- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 88,874; Pit Vol. 25,175; Open Interest Change: -147
-- Outside markets. Energy up 1.40 at $89.75; Gold & Silver: up 1.40 at $802
& up .90 at $14; US $ up slightly vs. Yen & up sharply vs. Euro
Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track
Ill Riv Frt
Dec +40/42 F +30/34 H +25/30 H +70/75 Z
390
Jan +51/53 F +44/46 H +45/55 H +78/80 H
400
Feb +40/42 H +50/53 H +55/60 H +80/85 H
425
Truck Beans Corn Wheat Meal Hi-pro Oil
Chicago -25 F -4 H -35 H
Toledo -48 F -14 H -20 H
Dec ILL -20 F -6 H -9 Z -225
Z
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/
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