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Alaron Softs Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 19/07 - SNS -- Following is the orange juice, cotton and coffee comment from Alaron Trading Corp.

**These markets will have normal trading hours on Wednesday, November 21st, and will be closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, 11/22, and Friday, 11/23. They will re-open on Monday, 11/26.**

The cotton market continues to be pressured by speculative long liquidation as a new monthly low was made today of 65.50 basis March. This market has been under pressure due to the large crop that is being harvested and the lack of demand. Since the beginning of the year, there were expectations for strong demand from China. However, that demand has not been seen. This is what has kept a lid on this market. The market has found underlying support as it has been trying to keep up with the higher prices seen in the wheat and beans in the last few months as they battle for acreage. The cotton market already lost  acreage this year to the corn market and will more than likely lose acreage next year. But if demand does not pick up, the upside potential in this market may be limited. Near term, this market is oversold as prices have dropped almost 500 points since 11/7. Spread trading has been active this month ahead of first notice day for the December contract on November 26th. Support for March is at 65.00-65.35. Resistance is at 66.50.

March coffee futures were significantly lower today due to weakness in the London market. Origin and speculative selling pushed prices lower. Coffee were steadily moving higher since the middle of this month. However, there was little buying interest in this market near 130.00 basis March. Volume was light ahead of the holiday weekend. The market has found underlying support as some are expecting a decline in the Brazilian crop due to the lack of rain in September and the first half of October. As of 11/19, stocks in certified warehouses were at 4,558,131 bags with 57,910 bags waiting to be graded. Support for March is at 125.00. Resistance is at 128.50-128.55.


Boyd Cruel

Alaron Research Team

800.563.9510

bcruel@alaron.com


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