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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Nov 15/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Soybeans traded to 19 year highs on Wednesday closing 23 ¼ cents higher Meal $ 8.00 higher and oil up 77 cents. Demand, especially from China is the fuel to this rally traders say. Not only has China purchased three to 4 cargoes of soybeans for Dec/Jan shipment in recent days but reports of additional purchases of 44,300 mt of 2007/08 soyoil to unknown buyers (possibly China) is adding to the fundamental strength. Monthly NOPA crush data was slightly bearish but traders are more focused on export demand than anything else. Volume was heavy 157,522 soybeans, 54,229 Meal and 54,882 Oil traded. Funds were active buyers buying an estimated 8,000 Soybeans, 4,000 Oil and 3,000 Meal. Early calls are lower and the overnight market in beans was weaker ending the evening session down 8 cents, bean oil and meal were weaker overnight as well. Early weakness in crude oil and gold as dollar firms also to weigh on prices. USDA reports private sale to China of 110,000 mt of US Soybeans for 2007/08 delivery. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 1.4% overnight ending the session. Talk of further purchases from China as they stockpile ahead of the Chinese Lunar New year. Wet weather in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul and Parana may disrupt soy planting and force some replanting with satisfactory crop weather. Traders say they will be keeping a close eye on outside markets for keys for further rallies in Soybeans and soybean related products. Overnight Chinese soybean futures close higher. Early opening calls beans 5 to 8 lower, Meal $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil .20 to .30 lower. Top News -- USDA weekly Thursday Export Sales data release, delayed until Friday Nov 16th, due to Veteran's Day holiday on Monday. -- Dalian Soybean futures 34 yuan/mt higher at 4578 yuan/mt; Soymeal futures 20 higher at 3506 yuan/mt; May Soyoil futures 62 higher at 9666 yuan/mt. -- Reluctance of US officials to embrace Brazilian ethanol imports has curbed investment in ethanol storage facilities in the US by Brazilian companies, acc. to industry sources -- Conventional blending in ethanol jumped nearly +7% this week over last to 2.119 mil bbl/day, acc. to the EIA. Conventional blending is the best indicator of discretionary, or non-mandated, blending of ethanol into the nation's gasoline supply. This caps off the strongest 4 week period of discretionary blending on record, +6.8% higher than the previous four weeks (which was also the previous record). The increase reflects the price differential between gasoline and ethanol, and the potential for this spread to increase demand -- eCBOT Soybean Vol. 113,371; Pit Vol. 36,715; Open Interest Change: +2,458 -- Weather: 6-10 Day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Above Normal Precip. The Corn Belt will be dry today into Saturday. -- Outside markets. Energy: 27c lower at $93.83/bbl, products lower ; Gold $15 lower & Silver: 49c lower; US $ slightly higher vs Euro, slightly lower vs Euro. Cash Markets --CIF Soybeans off 2 to 3. Nov. +25 to +32, Dec. +42 to +45, Jan. +47 to +52, Feb. +37 to +44, Mar. +36 to +42, Apr. +35 to +42, May +35 to +42, J/J +35 to +42. To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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