Prospective Soybean Harvest Slips

WASHINGTON - Nov 9/07 - SNS -- Soybean production is forecast at 2.59 billion bushels, down slightly from the October forecast and down 19% from last year's record high, according to the USDA.

Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.4 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher in Indiana, Michigan, Texas, and most of the Mid-Atlantic region as producers are realizing higher yields than expected. In contrast, yield prospects decreased or were unchanged across the remainder of the Nation as harvest progressed. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 62.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 16% from 2006.

Growers expect to harvest 62.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 16% from 2006. Record high yields are forecast in Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas. The November objective yield indicated pod count for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio) is up slightly from last year's pod count. Compared with last year, November objective yield indicated pod counts are lower in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, but higher in the remaining objective yield program States. If realized, pod counts from the November objective yield survey will be the highest on record in Nebraska, and the second highest on record in Iowa and Ohio.

Harvest progress began the month of October 11 points ahead of last year's pace and 5 points ahead of the 5-year average. By mid-October, however, harvest had slowed to a more normal pace. Heavy rains across the Great Plains and into the western Corn Belt slowed harvest around the middle of the month. As of October 14, harvest was 66% complete, equal to last year but only 1 point ahead of normal. Instances of rain during the latter part of the month in the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic region slowed harvest progress at times. As of October 28, growers had harvested 84% of their acreage, compared with 82% last year and the 5-year average of 85%. Harvest progress lagged behind normal in Iowa, the Great Plains, and the Great Lakes region, but was at or ahead of normal pace across the remainder of the country. By the end of October, harvest was 95% complete or more in Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

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