Smaller World Sunflower Supply

WINNIPEG - Nov 7/07 - SNS -- World sunflower seed production and supply are forecast to decrease by 9% from 2006-07 to 27.4 million metric tons (MT) and 29.9 million MT, respectively, according to Agriculture Canada, forcing a general decline in sunflower usage around the globe.

Production In the United States is expected to increase 35% to 1,312,000 MT, because of a 6% higher seeded area, lower abandonment and higher yields, writes Stan Skrypetz, Pulses and Special Crops Analyst, Market Analysis Division, Research & Analysis Directorate, Strategic Policy Branch,Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in today's edition of the Bi-weekly Bulletin.

Higher output will lift available supplies in the United States 10% to 1,449,000 MT, as lower carry-in stocks offset most of the increase in production. Oil sunflower seed production is forecast to increase by 39% to 1,130,000 MT and supply to increase by 10% to 1,188,000 MT. Confectionery sunflower seed production is forecast to increase by 13% to 182,000 MT and supply to increase by 7% to 261,000 MT.

For Canada, Skrypetz says, "Production is estimated to decrease by 20% to 125,000 MT, with a stable seeded area, higher abandonment and lower yields. There has been some shift in production from the confectionery type to the oilseed type as Canadian producers became more interested in growing NuSun varieties because of attractive contract prices and delivery points in Canada offered by US crushers, and the development of hybrids which are more suitable for Canadian growing conditions. Oilseed type production is expected to increase by 18% to 47,000 MT, while confectionery type production decreases by 33% to 78,000 MT.

"Quality is expected to be normal. Supply is estimated to decrease by 17% to 163,000 MT, due to the lower production. Exports are forecast to decrease due to the lower supply, while domestic use remains relatively stable because the confectionery and bird seed processing plants need sufficient supply to maintain their markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to 20,000 MT, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14%."

Combined North American production should jump 38% to 1,177,000 MT, while supply increases by 9% to 1,243,000 MT. Confectionery sunflower seed production is forecast to decrease by 5% to 260,000 MT and supply to decrease by 6% to 354,000 MT.

For both types, the average Canadian price is forecast to increase from 2006-07 levels. Prices of both types are expected to be supported by the lower world supply and strong commodity prices. In addition, prices of the oilseed type are expected to be supported by stronger demand and of the confectionery type by lower total US and Canadian supply.

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